Ukraine has faced the lowest soil moisture levels in seven seasons, posing serious risks to the 2025 harvest. According to Reuters, only 79.6 mm of precipitation fell during November-January, while the long-term average is 117 mm.
Due to the lack of precipitation, most Ukrainian fields were left without moisture during the autumn sowing season. Farmers, forced to plant seeds in dry soil, had high hopes for winter snows to replenish moisture reserves. However, these expectations were not fulfilled.
Of particular concern is the fact that low moisture availability for winter crops is being recorded for the first time in seven years. This could negatively affect the yields of major grain crops such as wheat and barley.
According to state forecasters, most winter crops sown in 2024 are in critical condition. Almost all seedlings are underdeveloped, which jeopardizes their survival and development in the spring.
Analysts also warn that a deficit in winter precipitation could lead to reduced yields and, consequently, to significant economic losses for Ukraine's agricultural sector.
Ukraine is one of the world's leading grain exporters, and the potential decline in yields could have global implications. The situation poses a difficult choice for farmers: whether to invest in spring sowing under such unfavorable conditions.
If weather conditions do not improve in the near future, the government, farmers, and international partners will have to seek solutions to minimize the impact of the crisis on the country's food security and its role in the global market.
