According to forecasts of the British edition of The Economist , hostilities in Ukraine may end as early as 2025. This assumption is based on assessments of the current state of the conflict, in which both sides, Ukraine and Russia, are approaching exhaustion. The publication notes that in Washington, this issue may become a priority for the new administration of Donald Trump, if he wins the US presidential election.
According to his assessment, the United States is running out of money and weapons to help Ukraine, and it still needs to help Israel and Taiwan. Europe has even fewer resources, and Ukraine itself cannot cope. Therefore, the likelihood of pressure to conclude a peace agreement is increasing.
The publication believes that Ukraine "will have to come to terms with the loss of part of its territory", it is unlikely to receive NATO membership, but some security guarantees are possible.
"In any case, at least now, it seems very likely that discussions will begin in 2025, and when that happens, the fighting may subside dramatically, leading to a cease-fire. A half-frozen conflict may arise while negotiations are ongoing. Imperfect, yes, but much better than the way things are now,” summarizes The Economist.
