Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy have reached a new level of force compared to previous attacks that began in the fall of 2022. These strikes are characterized by significant accuracy and great destructive potential.
Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko announced a new series of attacks on Facebook early on the morning of April 11, reporting Russian attacks on electricity generation facilities and transmission systems in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Lviv, and Kyiv regions, covering almost the entire territory of Ukraine.
The attack reportedly destroyed the Trypillia TPP, one of the largest in the country. Centrenergo, the plant's owner, said that all of the plant's capacity was destroyed.
A new wave of Russian strikes began in late March and included missile and drone attacks with a high number of hits. Later strikes often targeted targets that had survived previous attacks.
The Ministry of Energy appealed to citizens to keep information about the consequences of the strikes confidential - the location and names of objects, the number of hits, the degree of destruction.
Experts are already stressing that restoring Ukraine's power system to its previous levels will be extremely difficult, if at all possible. The government has also begun discussing the possibility of raising tariffs for the population in connection with the situation.
“Russian strikes targeting energy infrastructure facilities are striking in their precision and focus, unforeseen at the beginning of the war,” notes Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grinchuk.
According to her, the assessment of the damage is ongoing, but a significant part of the thermal generation was damaged. In addition, the attacks also affected hydropower generation, including the largest hydropower station on the Dnipro Hydropower Plant cascade. There is a possibility of damage to the dam, which could lead to environmental problems.
Ukrgidnoenergo CEO Ihor Syrota said that restoring the plant would take years, not just days or months. After the attacks on April 11, Centrenergo announced the loss of all its generation due to the destruction of the Trypilska TPP in the Kyiv region.
“The scale of the destruction is incalculable. Money cannot fix this situation. This is the biggest challenge in our history,” said Andriy Gota, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of PJSC “Centrenergo”.
Trypilska TPP was the main supplier of electricity to Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr regions.
The facilities of the electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo, which ensure the transmission of energy from producers to consumers, were also damaged.
The most difficult situation was in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odessa regions, where hourly outages had to be imposed. Often, the outage schedules were canceled, but after new shelling they had to be reinstated.
“Energy engineers are doing everything possible to quickly restore and redirect energy, but some facilities have such serious damage that it will not be possible to restore them so quickly, even with the availability of equipment,” Grinchuk added.
Local authorities and energy company representatives shared additional details about the consequences of recent attacks on energy infrastructure.
DTEK, the largest private energy company that controlled a significant share of the country's thermal generation before the war, describes the new Russian attacks on the energy sector as the most destructive in the last two years of the conflict.
After the first strike on March 22, DTEK lost 50% of its generation capacity, and the TPPs in Burshtyn and Ladyzhyn were damaged. However, after the second attack on March 29, the company announced even more serious consequences.
“5 out of 6 of our TPPs have been seriously damaged, some of them are almost completely destroyed,” DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk said during a telethon.
The company, which belongs to Rinat Akhmetov's SCM investment group, stressed that the scale of the destruction is so great that the company will not be able to recover without international assistance. In Kharkiv, the country's second largest city, there has been no electricity supply for some time. Although the electricity supply has been restored with interruptions, the city's mayor, Igor Terekhov, noted that virtually all major energy facilities were damaged. This applies not only to electricity, but also to heat.
In particular, the Zmiivska TPP, owned by Centrenergo, suffered serious damage. The company’s head, Andriy Gota, noted that everything that was repaired last fall has now been destroyed. Despite plans for restoration, the timing and costs remain unknown.
Kharkiv CHP-5 also suffered significant damage. According to its director, Oleksandr Minkovych, even with full funding and working equipment, the reconstruction process will take a long time.
“CHP plants not only produce electricity, but also supply heat. And while electricity can be somehow connected to other sources, the situation with heat is much more complicated,” noted Anna Ackermann, an analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development and a member of the board of the NGO “Ecodia”.
Cities will likely have to look for alternative heating systems, as restoring district heating systems by the next heating season will be impossible, the mayor of Kharkiv admitted after assessing the damage.
After Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy in March, some observers began to associate them with attacks on Russian oil refineries, calling the connection a “hysterical reaction” to losses in Russia.
After the April 11 attack, the Russians also expressed the concept of “revenge.”.
"The strikes were carried out in response to attempts by the Kyiv regime to damage Russian oil and gas and energy facilities," the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
However, energy professionals and experts argue that the Ukrainian energy system remains one of the main targets for the Russians, who seek to paralyze Ukraine's economy and intimidate the population.
“These attacks cannot be explained as revenge for any damage to Russian oil refineries or other reasons,” Maria Tsaturyan, communications director of Ukrenergo NPC, said in a comment to BBC Ukraine.
The attacks were prepared in advance, targeted specific objects, and aimed at the complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy system.
“What they failed to do in 2022-2023, they are trying to implement in stages,” explains the Ukrenergo representative.
According to Maria Tsaturyan, the Russians' strategic goal has remained unchanged since the beginning of the war - the complete collapse of the Ukrainian energy system.
However, tactics have changed.
Compared to past attacks, the Russians have retained the tactic of targeting precisely those power plants that are important for ensuring the balance of the system during peak consumption periods – morning and evening, says Tsaturyan.
This applies to thermal and hydroelectric power plants, which can respond quickly to changes in power at the direction of the dispatcher.
However, while previously the Russians used the tactic of "carpet bombing" all energy system facilities, now they are actively attacking specific regions. In this way, they are trying to cut off large cities and industrial areas - Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia - from energy supply, notes the Ukrenergo spokeswoman.
The attacks also affected the western regions - Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk.
Also being considered is infrastructure that allows Ukraine to import electricity. This helps in times of need, and is also a source of export revenue during periods when Ukraine can export electricity.
“Since last winter – 2022-2023 – the Russians have been trying to achieve disconnection from the European energy system, but these systems are connected not by one, but by several power transmission lines,” notes the Ukrenergo representative. Therefore, a complete disconnection is unlikely.
Indeed, during previous mass attacks, the Russians tried to cut off regions with electricity production from regions without it in order to disrupt the grid, notes Olena Pavlenko, president of the Dixi Group think tank, assessing the change in Russian tactics. Now, pinpoint attacks are aimed at capacities that provide flexibility and maneuverability of the system during periods of peaks and troughs in consumption.
However, the expert points to another goal: to find a weak spot in the system and strike where there is insufficient protection.
“Of course, there is a strategy there, but first of all (the Russians want) to find at least some hole and then pound it. Whatever is unprotected, they pound it,” Pavlenko claims.
One of the secrets to the resilience of Ukraine’s energy system is the elements that were in place before the war, says Deputy Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. The different voltage classes and highly distributed transmission network help power engineers “change connection schemes and restore damaged facilities very quickly.”.
Ukrainian energy companies responded after the war winter and managed to replenish stocks of high-voltage equipment, attracting over $1.2 billion in international loans and grants.
“This equipment already exists, and it arrives in Ukraine every week, which indicates the availability of equipment, technical capabilities for repair work, and the availability of resources,” adds the Ukrenergo spokeswoman.
The repair work itself is carried out by about one and a half thousand specialists in the company, who have the ability to quickly perform complex work with large-sized high-voltage equipment - from dismantling damaged equipment to installing new ones.
The attacks in 2022-2023 also made us think about physical protection of energy facilities. This protection will continue, as it has shown its effectiveness.
“I can't share the details, but I can say that if it weren't for this protection, at least at our facilities, the strikes would have been 2-3 times larger and more massive,” emphasizes Maria Tsaturyan.
After the March attacks, there was no shortage in the power system, and restrictions for industrial and residential consumers were not related to a shortage of capacity, but to damage to the network.
In addition, a certain share of the balance of the Ukrainian energy system is made up of imports of European electricity, which, according to Tsaturyan, is “almost fully loaded.”.
“Everything that can work, all power units, they work,” emphasizes the representative of Ukrenergo.
In addition, wind and solar generation are operating, which allowed for a faster restoration of power supply in one of the most problematic regions - the Odessa region.
But after the attack on April 11, Ukrenergo stated that “now there is significantly less electricity on the production scale than there was yesterday, before the attack,” and in order to maintain balance, “it is necessary to unload the consumption scale.”.
You should consume electricity especially sparingly in the evening - from 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM.
A very warm spring allowed Ukraine not only to end the heating season almost a month earlier than usual, but also to withstand the blows to energy generation.
By "raising" reserves at nuclear power plants, which serve as the base for generation, and attracting imports and solar energy for balance, demand has so far been met.
But, as the April 11 attacks showed, this can change very quickly, even before the next summer consumption peak.
“We may face a shortage problem when consumption starts to grow,” notes Deputy Energy Minister Svitlana Grinchuk.
According to her, “by the summer we will not be able to restore (capacity) to the level that was before the attack on March 22.” And by winter it will be difficult to restore the “necessary minimum”.
“We have plans to install new generation, which will also help get through both the summer and the next heating season. However, restoring the damaged facilities to the level that existed before these attacks will be very difficult,” adds Svitlana Grinchuk.
The first war winter was very difficult for Ukraine, when “energy workers did truly incredible things, when they reconnected in various ways, and the system continued to work,” notes Anna Ackermann.
“After that, there was enough capacity, but at some point it may happen that there will be not enough. And then the outages will begin. Constantly. Because there simply will not be additional capacity,” the expert predicts.
Unexpectedly, the crisis situation in the energy sector forced the Ukrainian authorities to address the issue of radical changes in the energy system, for which there was previously no political will in peacetime.
One such change is the abandonment of the Soviet legacy of large thermal power plants in favor of smaller forms of generation – distributed or dispersed.
It is believed that many small facilities are more difficult to destroy than one large one. Also, new construction should be less harmful to the environment than the former coal giants.
In February, President Zelenskyy expressed the view that Ukraine needs to decentralize and “green” its energy sector to minimize the risks of energy disruptions due to further Russian attacks.
After the March attacks on the power system, the need for new distributed generation was confirmed by the Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo Volodymyr Kudrytskyi. However, this model can only be implemented after the problem of billions of hryvnias in debt on the market is resolved. Without this, it is not worth expecting investors to come to distributed energy.
However, is this possible during war?
“When we at Ukrenergo hear that something is impossible, we smile, because we were told that it was impossible to integrate into the European energy system,” recalls the company’s spokeswoman Maria Tsaturyan, recalling the events of March 2022, when Ukraine joined ENTSO a year and a half ahead of schedule. She also believes that distributed generation is possible even during a war, if there are no debts on the market. But for this, “it is necessary to treat it with regulations” and “end the possibility of not paying for electricity,” she adds.
However, she admits, distributed generation is not a project for a few weeks or even a year, and by next winter, energy companies will have to restore the quality of old capacities while there is no distributed generation.
However, the main problem is not only in debts or time - Ukraine does not have enough funds to implement this beautiful idea of decentralized generation, believes Olena Pavlenko. In particular, external donors can set a condition that the new generation be environmentally friendly.
On the one hand, the prospects of the green direction have already been confirmed by investors themselves, who continue to implement new projects even during the war and the unresolved problem with the green tariff. They simply enter the market and start working like regular generation, Pavlenko notes.
However, to meet the most urgent needs until next winter, Ukraine will have to rebuild some of its coal- or gas-fired thermal power plants. In the future, even small nuclear reactors or the construction of nuclear power plants should not be ruled out if Ukraine intends to have a powerful industrial base and export electricity.
Green energy also has its challenges. Its development requires upgrading grids and having sufficient balancing capacity, as wind and solar energy are not generated as consistently as energy from traditional sources.
This problem is difficult even for countries like Germany, which has been counting on Russian gas as a “balance” to renewable energy sources. Green energy is of interest to municipalities, which see both economic and security benefits in it.
Distributed generation can also be effective at the local level. For rapid implementation of this technology, it is necessary to explore the possibilities of its autonomous operation without connection to the main grid.
As a result of the attacks, it became clear that the main target of Russian actions is the energy transmission system and balancing generation, says Deputy Energy Minister Svitlana Grinchuk. Therefore, the protection of these systems must come to the fore, and “the best protection for our facilities is facility protection software (FPS).” Thus, the main task of the government now is to strengthen air defense.
It is important to emphasize that air defense must work together with the physical protection of facilities, as without this, the consequences of shelling could be even more tragic.
Experts believe that a key aspect of protection is air defense, which is a necessary element for Ukrenergo. However, this aspect does not depend on the energy sector.
In the current environment, there are two parallel processes – strategic changes in the energy system and urgent preparations for the next winter.
Regarding the restoration of capabilities, the government and companies are currently assessing whether it is possible to restore quickly enough to have the system operating by summer or the next heating season. For now, it is necessary to react quickly and implement solutions, as there is little time for long-term strategies.
To survive the next winter, Ukraine will have to restore some capacity. On the other hand, gas turbine and gas piston plants, as well as distributed renewable energy, are needed.
Currently, the processes of active installation of energy storage systems are underway, and the installation of solar panels on critical infrastructure facilities is also planned.
In the future, the construction of new nuclear units is planned, as base energy is needed.
