Sky News military analyst Professor Michael Clarke estimates the chances of Ukrainian units holding Pokrovsk at approximately 50/50 and highlights Russia's main advantage - numbers, which allow the enemy to penetrate the city in small groups and hold "islands" of positions.
According to Clark, the Ukrainian side believes that about a thousand Russian fighters have already penetrated the central part of the city in small groups; if the enemy manages to secure these "islands", throw armored vehicles there and fortify the position, this could force the Ukrainian units to retreat.
Pokrovsk is different from Bakhmut - while the latter had more symbolic significance, Pokrovsk is an important transport hub (roads and railways) and, accordingly, its loss will give the enemy real logistical advantages for advancing further in Donbas. That is why, according to the analyst, the capture of the city could open the way for Russia to further operations in the direction of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
On the Ukrainian side, there is a concentration of elite units. Clark noted that the Azov unit and other trained formations were involved in the defense, which are currently the main force for clearing the city's "ends" and displacing the enemy invaders. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that elite units and sufficient numbers are needed to conduct operations to eliminate small enemy pockets in dense urban areas.
The tactical dilemma for Kyiv is simple but painful: wage complex urban battles to dislodge enemy groups, a risky and resource-intensive operation, or retreat, preserving forces, but losing an important logistical hub and morale-propaganda victory to the enemy. The Guardian and other publications write about the escalation of fighting and the involvement of special forces in the region, which emphasizes the criticality of the situation on the ground.
Clark also notes that the Russians do not yet have the excess firepower to instantly overwhelm positions, but their numerical superiority creates a strategic problem: sufficient personnel make it possible to make frequent, local breakthroughs and consistently consolidate. As a result, even without overwhelming artillery fire, they can force the defenders to give in if they can reinforce the "islands" with equipment and ammunition.
What does this mean for the broader situation on the front? Even if Pokrovskoye is lost, analysts warn that it is unlikely to be fatal for the entire defense of Ukraine - but it will be a significant tactical and moral step forward for Moscow and may affect the foreign policy of the enemy and the perception of the course of the war in the international arena. At the same time, military experts emphasize: the price for the capture of medium-sized cities for the Russians is traditionally very high - human and material losses can delay the offensive further.
What can help Ukraine?
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Concentration and rotation of elite assault units to operate in urban areas; special attention to clearing "islands" and disabling enemy logistical chains.
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Support with fire and technical superiority: precision artillery support, unmanned platforms for reconnaissance and fire adjustment, ammunition reserves for interventions in urban environments.
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Prompt evacuations of civilians and minimizing humanitarian losses to reduce moral pressure on the defenders.
