The war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is far from over — there are currently no conditions in sight for freezing the conflict, nor any significant chances for a clear peace scenario. This is what the former head of the Luhansk Military-Civil Administration and former Deputy Minister for Temporarily Occupied Territories, Georgy Tuka, writes in a column for Glavred. He notes that the military process may continue for a long time — more than one year — and there is a risk of the fighting spreading to other countries.
According to Georgy Tuka, the main prerequisites for a quick end to the war are absent. He names two scenarios that could lead to the end or transformation of the conflict:
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or Vladimir Putin will achieve his goals and stop the war,
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or one of the parties — Ukraine or Russia — will suffer exhaustion and be forced to capitulate.
However, at the moment, according to Tuka, none of these scenarios has a satisfactory confirmed prospect.
" Therefore, the war will continue for a long time — not a year or two. Moreover, it may expand, and two options are quite likely: other countries may be involved in it, and the fighting may go beyond the borders of Ukraine and spread to the territory of other states ," he concluded.
Tuka warns that the conflict could not only remain debilitating for both sides, but also evolve into a broader regional or international one. This means that Ukraine must prepare not just for defense, but for a long-term war with unpredictable geography.
At the same time, he notes: without a change in the balance of power, without significant pressure on the Russian side or exhaustion of the parties, an end on terms favorable to Ukraine is not yet in sight. Therefore, the strategic goal must go beyond the expectation of one or two years.
The expert calls for a realistic assessment of the situation: not to expect sudden peace, not to count on a freeze, and to prepare for new challenges. This applies to the military, diplomatic, and humanitarian components.
