Despite increased diplomatic contacts and intensified international negotiations, the end of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine remains far away, said Gwendolyn Sasse, director of the Center for East European and International Studies, in a column for The Guardian.
According to her, regular meetings between Ukraine, the United States, and European partners, as well as episodic contacts between Washington and Moscow, have not changed the basic reality: there is no ceasefire, security mechanisms have not been defined, and Russia has not demonstrated readiness to end the war.
The culmination of diplomatic efforts in recent weeks was a meeting in Paris, where 35 countries joined together in a so-called “coalition of the willing.” They discussed possible security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. The process involved the United States, key European capitals, and a wider circle of Kyiv’s partners.
However, as Sasse notes, these talks have not brought any real progress. Formal peace talks have not started, and not even a ceasefire has been agreed. At the same time, only Ukraine, in her assessment, publicly demonstrates a willingness to compromise, while Russia maintains a tough position.
Amid diplomatic initiatives, Moscow has, on the contrary, intensified missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, particularly on energy infrastructure. The author believes that this is part of a deliberate strategy of pressure on the civilian population during the winter period, designed to undermine the country's resilience both physically and psychologically.
The final Paris Declaration, according to Sasse, is more symbolic in nature. It provides for the participation of the coalition in a US-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism, continued military support for Ukraine, the creation of a multinational force under European leadership, a commitment to respond in the event of a violation of the agreements by Russia, and long-term defense cooperation with Kyiv. However, none of these points yet has clear implementation mechanisms.
The UK and France have reaffirmed their readiness to deploy troops in Ukraine once the ceasefire is in place as a safeguard in case it is violated. However, it remains unclear what actions Russia will consider a violation and what the Western response will be.
An additional signal was the statement of the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who for the first time allowed the participation of the German military in the security guarantee mechanism. However, he clarified that this only concerns possible deployment in NATO countries bordering Ukraine, and only with the consent of the Bundestag.
The key problem, according to Sasse, remains the Kremlin's position. Vladimir Putin, in her opinion, is not interested in real negotiations and believes that time is on his side. His confidence is only strengthened against the backdrop of direct contacts with Donald Trump and the approach of the new American administration, focused on short-term deals.
The term “coalition of the willing,” which evokes contradictory historical associations, in this case reflects a new reality of international politics — the formation of situational alliances outside traditional institutions. The outcome of the war in Ukraine, according to the author, will be a key test for this new world order.
