After three years of full-scale war, fighting in Ukraine could escalate , and the fiercest battles are likely yet to come, writes The Independent , analyzing the current situation on the front.
Will Russia be able to capture Donbas?
According to the British publication, if the dynamics of hostilities do not change , Russia could completely occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions The occupiers have an advantage in artillery, aviation, and mobilization resources , which allows them to conduct offensive operations even against the backdrop of significant losses.
As the publication claims, it is a “heroic assumption” that Ukraine will be in a stronger position next year, as each subsequent anniversary of the invasion has weakened Kyiv’s position.
“On current trends, it will take Russia until the end of the year to capture the rest of Donbas, without which an end to the war is unlikely in any case. Therefore, there is no guarantee that talks between the US and Russia will lead to a resolution of the conflict. Unfortunately, this means that the bloodiest battles of the war are still ahead, as the Russian military seeks to maximize its military advantage,” the publication writes.
As the publication reminds, recently the United States has sharply withdrawn its support for Ukraine amid the public conflict between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump.
From Trump's perspective, this is Biden's war, which is already lost. And politically, Trump has a much easier time pursuing peace than his European counterparts because he campaigned on an anti-war message, repeatedly stating that the war would never have happened if he had been president.
“Trump wants to find a quick solution and move on. If that doesn’t work, he can wash his hands of it and let the Europeans deal with it,” the article says.
At the same time, no one is forcing Russia to rush into a deal it doesn't like. Moscow's conditions are known: official recognition that the four regions it annexed in September 2022, plus Crimea, are now part of Russia, and the withdrawal of remaining Ukrainian troops from these regions. Kyiv must promise permanent neutrality, limitations on its armed forces.
But these terms are completely unacceptable to Kyiv. And the only way to force such an agreement on Kyiv is either a complete military collapse of Ukrainian forces, which is currently unlikely, or concerted pressure from a united West to accept Russia’s terms. However, the Europeans are still insisting that Ukraine must continue to fight until it can negotiate “from a position of strength.”.
The situation at the front
As former speaker of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznyov said, the situation on the front in Ukraine is far from stable, it is extremely difficult, especially in the area of the cities of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. In addition, the situation currently unfolding in the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkiv region may have crisis consequences.
As a reminder, on February 19, the DeepState monitoring project reported that Russian troops had captured two settlements in the Donetsk region at once – Dachne and Zelenivka. And on February 21, the occupiers entered Novoocherutuvate.
