The situation on the front in Ukraine indicates that Russia is preparing for a new stage of hostilities on several fronts at once. Signs of the activation of Russian troops indicate that the Kremlin is not considering a scenario of ending the war through diplomatic means and continues to rely on imposing its own conditions by force.
According to the latest estimates by Western analysts, Russia plans to launch large-scale offensive operations in southern Ukraine and Donbas this summer. To this end, the Russian military command intends to mobilize strategic reserves, the formation of which has been underway since 2025.
Analysts say the very fact of stockpiling reserves and planning large-scale operations indicates Moscow’s reluctance to end the war. On the contrary, the Kremlin sees 2026 as an opportunity to change the situation on the battlefield by concentrating forces and attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses.
At the same time, experts draw attention to the serious limitations facing the Russian army. The main problem remains the lack of manpower. Constant losses at the front complicate Russia's ability to maintain a high pace of combat operations for a long time.
Analysts estimate that the available reserves may be insufficient to achieve the stated military goals. Difficulties with personnel replenishment, logistical problems, and exhaustion of units reduce Russia's potential to conduct long-term and large-scale offensive operations.
Thus, despite preparations for a new offensive, the Kremlin's capabilities remain limited, and relying on a forceful scenario does not guarantee Russia strategic success in the war against Ukraine.
