The main battles of the second year of the great war of Russia against Ukraine

The second year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shown a tendency to “freeze” the conflict. During this period, neither side has managed to break through the enemy’s defenses to any significant depth, and the war has shifted from one of maneuver to one of position.

But even under such conditions, battles took place that will go down in history.

Throughout 2023 and early 2024, Russia was able to win bloody and fierce battles for two cities in the Donetsk region – Bakhmut and Avdiivka. In both cases, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence, the Kremlin suffered disproportionately high losses in manpower.

Ukraine, for its part, was unable to achieve the announced goals of its offensive. However, it managed to break through a powerful Russian defense line in the Zaporizhia region and conduct an extremely complex operation to cross the Dnieper and maintain a bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region.

Let's remember how it all happened.

Bakhmut

Recovering from painful defeats in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in the fall of 2022, Russia began its powerful offensive operation in Donbas. The target was the industrial town of Bakhmut.

The main driving force behind the Russian attacks is the mercenary units of the private military company Wagner. Its owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, openly recruited thousands of prisoners from Russian prisons. They were used as “cannon fodder” on the battlefield.

They began to put pressure on the Ukrainian defenses near Bakhmut in the fall of 2022, and in January 2023 they managed to break through the defenses near the town of Soledar, 5 km north of Bakhmut.

After this success, the Russians began to rapidly surround the city from the southern and northern flanks.

At that time, the Ukrainian authorities faced a question: whether to withdraw troops from Bakhmut so that they would not be surrounded, or to hold out until the last. According to media reports, the then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, was in favor of withdrawing and preserving forces, while President Volodymyr Zelensky was against it. Accordingly, the Ukrainian military received an order to hold out until the last in Bakhmut.

By early spring, the Russians had managed to cut most of the roads to the city. The last route, which led from Bakhmut to the village of Chasiv Yar, was under constant threat of attack.

In addition to bypassing the flanks, Wagner militants also entered the city and began fighting in residential areas. The Russians destroyed block after block. A bird's-eye view of the city shows that Bakhmut has been destroyed by almost 90% in six months of fighting.

In May, Russian forces pushed the Ukrainians to the outskirts, and on May 20, the Kremlin announced that it had fully captured Bakhmut. Ukrainian authorities have never publicly acknowledged this.

The operation in this direction was called the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder” due to the huge losses on both sides. Official data on the number of dead is still unknown, but according to rough estimates, they could reach up to 50 thousand fighters.

Robotine

As the battle for Bakhmut continued, Ukraine prepared new units to launch its offensive. The new brigades were trained in the West and armed with foreign armored vehicles, including Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles.

The Ukrainian offensive began on June 4 in the Zaporizhia region. Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked not on one section of the front, but on several at once. But the main direction of the attack was near the village of Robotyne. This is a small village that lies between the Ukrainian city of Orikhiv and the Russian-occupied Tokmak.

It was important for Ukraine to capture Robotyne, then move to Tokmak and reach Melitopol to cut off the Russian land corridor from Crimea to Donbas.

But the first Ukrainian attacks in this region failed. The Russians built powerful defensive fortifications that included many kilometers of trenches, tank obstacles, and huge minefields.

Because of this, the Ukrainians were unable to liberate Robotyne quickly and came under fire from the Russians. In addition, the Ukrainian army had no air cover, so the fighters on the ground were defenseless.

In the first days of the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost many soldiers and equipment near Robotyne. In neighboring areas, the offensive went a little better. Near the village of Velyka Novosilka, the Ukrainians managed to liberate 5 villages and advance 10 km deep into the Russian defenses.

However, the battle for the small village of Robotyne lasted almost three months. The Ukrainians decided to change tactics and use less scarce Western armor, instead attacking more with infantry groups.

This yielded results – on August 28, the Ukrainian authorities announced the liberation of Robotyn from Russian troops.

But the Ukrainian army spent too much time and effort on this, and therefore was unable to advance further towards Tokmak and Melitopol. By the end of autumn, the offensive here had effectively stopped.

In the winter, Russian troops began their attacks on Robotyne, trying to neutralize the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in this area.

Krynky. A bridgehead in the Kherson region

One of the greatest successes for the Ukrainian army in 2023 was the bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region.

After the liberation of the regional center of Kherson in 2022, the front line between Ukrainian and Russian troops ran along the Dnieper River. Neither side had enough forces and resources to successfully cross this water obstacle and land on the enemy's shore.

In addition, in early June, the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam was blown up, flooding large areas in the Kherson region. Ukrainian authorities and international experts say that the explosion could have been caused by Russia to disrupt military operations by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

But in the fall of 2023, it became known that the Ukrainian military was still able to cross the Dnieper and create a bridgehead on the left bank.

This was not officially announced for a long time, and only in mid-November did the Ukrainian authorities announce the bridgehead.

This bridgehead is very small and is located near the village of Krynki. Russia is trying to eliminate it, constantly shelling it with artillery and aircraft. The settlement has been virtually wiped off the face of the Earth.

Despite everything, Ukrainian fighters manage to hold their bridgehead.

It is important for restraining the Russian troops, as well as for the Ukrainian army to be able to move further in the Kherson region towards occupied Crimea.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Vladimir Putin on February 20 that Krynki had been “cleared” of Ukrainian troops. But this turned out to be untrue, as both Ukrainian sources and Russian “war bloggers” immediately reported.

An operation to hold such a long-term bridgehead, located on the enemy shore and supported exclusively by boats, without armored vehicles or aircraft, has every chance of being included in military art textbooks.

Avdiivka

Avdiivka is a small industrial town very close to Donetsk, which was captured by pro-Russian militants 10 years ago - in the spring of 2014.

All these years, Avdiivka was held by Ukrainian troops, who built strong defensive fortifications there.

On October 10, 2023, the Russian army launched a powerful offensive on Avdiivka to drive Ukrainian forces out of the city.

According to Kyiv's estimates, about 40,000 Russian troops initially took part in the offensive, moving from the southern and northern flanks, trying to bypass Avdiivka and encircle it. In total, according to military analysts, 60-80,000 Russian soldiers took part in the operation.

The Ukrainian authorities stated that the Russians suffered huge losses here. Thus, in the first month of the offensive alone, they allegedly lost about 10 thousand fighters. In just 4 months of the Avdiivka operation, the Russian losses, according to the calculations of the Ukrainian General Staff, amounted to 17 thousand dead and almost 30 thousand wounded.

Similar data was provided by Russian military man, “war blogger” Andrei Morozov (Murz). He reported that Russia lost 16,000 soldiers near Avdiivka. Due to the disclosure of this information, pressure began on him and he committed suicide.

During the first three months of fighting near Avdiivka, the Russians managed to advance only a few kilometers north and south of the city. They also approached the local coke plant, which was held by the Ukrainians.

The front line broke through in late January and early February. Then, groups of Russian troops were able to move through an abandoned underground water pipe to a residential area in the south of Avdiivka, and later broke through a summer residence in the northeast of the city.

Instead of surrounding the entire city, the Russians began to “cut” the Ukrainian garrison defending it in half. They quickly approached and were able to take control of the main road from Avdiivka through the village of Lastochkino. Under such conditions, it became too risky for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to remain in the city.

On the morning of February 17, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka, and Russia announced the capture of the city.

What will happen next?

The third year of a full-scale war is unlikely to bring a lull on the front, experts predict.

Russia will likely try to continue its offensive in Donbas. Its immediate targets could be the towns of Chasiv Yar, Novomykhailivka, and Vugledar. Russian troops have already significantly increased their pressure on these areas of the front.

The Russians will also try to capture Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, which is an important railway junction and has a favorable strategic location on the Oskil River.

The Ukrainian authorities will likely focus on defense and preparing new reserves. If international support for Ukraine does not decline and the West transfers sufficient weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then perhaps the Ukrainian troops will be able to conduct local offensive operations in the Zaporizhia region, as well as in the Kherson region.

They could be successful if Ukraine receives sufficient long-range missiles and the promised F-16 aircraft. These modern aircraft will be able to provide air cover for ground forces.

However, the vast majority of analysts are confident that the third year of the great war will be for Ukraine primarily a year of strategic defense and preparation of new reserves.