The number of Ukrainian refugees planning to return home is rapidly declining. While in 2022 74% of them expressed an intention to return, now this figure has dropped to 43%. Such data is provided by the Center for Economic Strategy, and quoted by The Economist.
The main reason for refusing to return remains the war and uncertainty about Ukraine's future. The threat of a new invasion, as well as the possibility of a frozen conflict without integration into NATO and the EU, are forcing many Ukrainians to permanently settle abroad.
Previously, it was believed that most of the women who left would return home after the war ended. However, experts now say that the reality has changed. The integration of Ukrainians into European societies, the adaptation of children to local schools, and the acquisition of jobs are forcing many refugees to choose life abroad, even if the fighting stops.
Although travel abroad for men of military age is currently severely restricted, the situation could change dramatically once martial law is lifted. According to CES estimates, more than 500,000 Ukrainian men could leave the country once travel restrictions are lifted. This could trigger a new wave of emigration that would have a significant impact on Ukraine’s demographic future.
Thus, while previously the main challenge was the return of women and children, more and more experts are now drawing attention to the risk of a mass exodus of men after the war. This could lead to an even greater reduction in the country's population and complicate its economic recovery.
Ukraine faces an unprecedented demographic challenge. If the country does not create conditions for the return of its citizens, including security guarantees, economic prospects, and clear integration into European structures, emigration could become an even bigger problem than the war. The question remains: will Ukraine be able to retain its citizens after the conflict ends, or will it face a long-term population outflow?
