The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that the mass return of citizens who left abroad due to the war may begin in 2027. According to the regulator's estimates, about 100 thousand Ukrainians will return home in the first wave, and by 2028 the number of repatriates may increase to 500 thousand.
At the same time, 2026 will remain a transitional year. The NBU expects that the net outflow of the population will continue - approximately 200 thousand people may leave the country. Only after that, provided that the security situation improves and the economic stabilization, the trend will gradually reverse.
The forecast is based on the assumption of reduced security risks, intensified post-war reconstruction and gradual economic recovery. Over the past 2.5 years, Ukraine's population has decreased by at least 10 million people. As of mid-2024, the country had about 35.8 million people. Such demographic dynamics create long-term challenges - labor shortages, increasing pressure on the social system and slowing economic growth.
At the same time, the return of citizens may partially compensate for the personnel shortage. The NBU predicts increased demand for workers in construction, industry, energy, and the service sector. This may contribute to reducing unemployment and gradually increasing incomes.
According to the regulator's estimates, in 2025–2026, real wages will grow by about 7% annually, and in 2027–2028, by about 6% annually.
Security, stable energy supply, and sufficient income remain key conditions for mass return. These factors, according to the NBU, will determine the willingness of Ukrainians to return home in the medium term.
