Western analysts warn that Russia is preparing a new offensive in the north of the Kharkiv region, noting that Russian troops are likely consolidating their reserves to create the Northern Group, closer to their planned final size. According to the American Institute for the Study of War, these actions are aimed at preparing for a further offensive in the north of the region.
The institute’s analysis shows that the Russian command is likely waiting for the right moment to intensify offensive operations and move to the second phase, as their plans call for a grouping of 50,000 to 70,000 people. After the capture of Vovchansk, Russian forces are expected to launch the second phase of the operation in the northern direction, although Ukrainian counterattacks may force them to launch another exciting offensive to complete this operation.
Currently, Russian forces are trying to create a “buffer zone” to the north of Kharkiv region and are moving within the range of Kharkiv’s artillery. However, there are some uncertainties regarding the purpose of the second phase of the operation, and whether Russian forces have more ambitious strategic plans. Analysts note that even with the maximum number of the group, Russian forces will lack the manpower to successfully capture the city of Kharkiv.
Regarding the situation on the front, according to the General Staff, Russian troops continue active operations in the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian troops have successfully repelled six out of six enemy attacks and are holding defensive lines in the Kupyansk direction. The opponents are also unsuccessfully trying to improve their tactical position in the Myasozharivka and Novoyehorivka areas. In general, the level of assault operations in this direction has increased to 14, and half of them have been repelled by Ukrainian forces, seven more are ongoing.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian losses in this offensive exceeded Ukraine's losses by eight times.
