Military analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predict that the Russian occupiers may continue offensive actions to destabilize Ukrainian defense lines in the spring of 2024, and will also prepare for expected new offensive actions in the summer of this year.
According to the ISW report, the provision of Western security assistance will play a crucial role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory and repel new Russian offensives in the coming months. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have recently managed to slow the advance of the occupiers west of Avdiivka, but a lack of material resources is forcing the Ukrainian military to prioritize limited resources on critical sections of the front.
ISW emphasizes that Russian forces are focused on maintaining the initiative across the theater of operations and dynamically shifting the balance of their offensive efforts this spring and summer. Presumably, the Russian military command intends to use any successes and projections of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' lack of support to launch new offensive actions.
Well-equipped Ukrainian forces have demonstrated that they can prevent Russian forces from achieving even minor successes during large-scale offensive operations. ISW believes that Ukraine can stabilize the front line and prepare to repel the declared Russian offensive operations if material resources are provided.
