Rising global oil prices and the devaluation of the hryvnia have led to an increase in wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. An additional factor was increased demand caused by prolonged power outages and lower temperatures. According to experts, gas station networks may react to these factors in the coming days.
At the end of last week, oil prices rose amid geopolitical tensions. Investors feared a possible military escalation between the United States and Iran, which pushed prices up. An additional impact was also exerted by the revival in the American market, where traders actively bought oil on the eve of a long weekend. At the same time, after the decrease in tensions between the countries, oil partially lost ground, but the overall price level remained higher than before.
At the same time, Ukraine is experiencing unusually high demand for fuel for winter. Due to the massive use of generators, gasoline and diesel consumption in the first two weeks of January reached levels typical of the spring period. Gas station operators are also reporting an increase in sales of related goods and services amid the blackouts.
Experts explain that the combination of rising oil prices and a weakening hryvnia has significantly increased the cost of imported fuel. Ukraine is completely dependent on imports of petroleum products, so even minor fluctuations in the exchange rate and quotations are quickly reflected in prices. According to experts, the combined effect of these factors has increased the cost of a liter of fuel by more than three hryvnias, although the subsequent correction of European prices has somewhat softened the forecast.
An additional challenge for the market has been logistical difficulties in freezing conditions. Fuel transportation has become more difficult, and diesel requires the use of special additives to prevent freezing in low temperatures. This also puts pressure on operators' costs.
According to market participants, by the end of the week, the largest gas station chains may increase prices for gasoline and diesel by about 1 hryvnia per liter. Other operators may join this step later. At the same time, no significant changes in prices for liquefied gas are expected in the near future: demand for it remains low, and importers work with almost no margin.
Overall, the situation on the fuel market remains tense. Rising global oil prices, devaluation of the hryvnia, and increased demand due to blackouts create conditions for further fuel price increases on the retail market.
