According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are planning to expand their positions northwest of Avdiivka in Donetsk region, carrying out actions aimed at achieving strategic objectives. The report indicates that Russian forces have concentrated in the Berdychi-Novokalynove area, with various tactical directions in mind. Despite this, their capabilities may be limited by the anticipated military assistance from the United States and European countries, which may arrive in the near future.
It is noted that Russian troops are forming three main lines of advance, including a movement west of Berdychi, towards the village of Ocheretinye, as well as an advance along road O0544 towards the village of Novokalynove. These actions are aimed at reaching the strategic border of Donetsk region with the intention of controlling the city of Pokrovsk.
Analysis of the ISW report shows that while Russian forces have managed to create several salients along the front, they are too limited for further strategic operations. It is expected that Russian forces will attempt to combine their efforts to create a wider breakthrough along the Berdychi-Novokalinove line.
However, the report notes that Russian forces do not have enough time for a broader offensive due to the anticipated assistance from Western countries. The planned replenishment of the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may take place in the near future, which could significantly adjust the balance of power.
Analysts believe that the arrival of Western aid will allow Ukrainian forces to maintain the initiative on the battlefield and reduce pressure from Russian troops. It is predicted that in the coming weeks, Russian troops will continue to try to win tactical victories in various areas, but their capabilities will be limited by the expected assistance from the West.
