The topic of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war has recently become relevant again. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko analyzes the existing versions of a possible peace and explains why the search for an answer to this question is unlikely to yield anything at the moment.
When might the Russian-Ukrainian war end?
Recently, the topic of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war has become relevant again. Articles appear on this topic, politicians, military and political analysts express their views. Journalists ask: when can the Russian-Ukrainian war end?
However, the perception of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, both in Ukraine and often in the West, is dominated by extremes that are far from reality.
Last year, we had extremely inflated expectations that in a little while, the West would give us tanks, and we would liberate all the occupied territories, including Crimea. And then the war would end by itself with our victory. These were very naive ideas about the end of the war.
Now there are much fewer such illusions in Ukraine. But faith in a miracle remains. The idea that the war will end this year thanks to the arrival of NATO troops in Ukraine is a kind of “victory Manilovschina” devoid of real grounds. Those who voice such theories should read Biden’s Address to the US Congress, in which the US President directly said that American soldiers would not fight in Ukraine. The loud statements of the French President about the possible presence of NATO troops in Ukraine have not yet met with support from most of his colleagues in the North Atlantic Alliance. In addition, the European NATO countries are not yet ready for such a war, both organizationally, resource-wise, and socio-psychologically, for the war that has been going on in Ukraine for over two years. But the main factor deterring NATO from direct participation in the war against Russia is the risk of nuclear war. This same risk is currently deterring Putin from striking neighboring Western countries.
The other extreme is the idea that Russia will win the current war in a short time. A recent article in Die Welt was written in this vein. The author of this article suggests that American military aid to Ukraine will be sharply reduced, regardless of the outcome of the elections, and Europe lacks the “strength and political will” to independently provide the necessary assistance with weapons. Ukraine, in his opinion, is unlikely to be able to hold the front, and Russia has enough resources and global support to continue the war for several more years. Therefore, the end of the war may occur this year by freezing hostilities. The author does not specify how exactly this will happen, but, apparently, assumes that it will happen on Russia’s terms. The article in Die Welt greatly exaggerates the existing problems and extrapolates them to the near future, while opposing trends and factors are silenced or ignored.
The topic of ending the war through peace negotiations is also perceived as extreme, especially in our country.
One extreme is the expectation of a negotiated end to the war right now. It doesn’t matter in what way and under what conditions. The main thing is that this war ends as soon as possible. Supporters of this position see a hint of possible peace in any Western publication on this topic, in any statement on the subject of peace by Putin or one of the Western leaders (for example, Scholz). In this case, the desired is considered real.
The exact opposite extreme is a conspiratorial and paranoid attitude towards the very topic of ending the war through peace negotiations. Any political statement, discussion, or even a purely academic article on the topic of peace negotiations is perceived as “treason,” as a secret and criminal plan to secretly surrender Ukraine to Putin. This point of view is very prominently presented in our public.
Hence the suspicious attitude towards the Global Peace Summit initiated by Ukraine. There will be no unforeseen consequences from this summit. This summit is not about ending the war and not about negotiations with Russia. Moreover, Russia will not be at this summit. This summit is dedicated to promoting President Zelensky’s Peace Formula and our position on the conditions for ending the war. For Russia, our conditions for ending the war (President Zelensky’s Peace Formula) are unacceptable, just as the Russian conditions for peace are unacceptable to us. In this sense, the situation remains as hopeless as it was a year ago. Moreover, the likelihood of peace negotiations has even decreased at this point. Russia is preparing for an escalation of the war and is ready for peace only on its own terms, which have become much tougher and more ultimatum-oriented than two years ago in Istanbul. The West knows this well and understands that it is possible to force Putin to engage in real peace negotiations only by stopping him in Ukraine.
Hence the very simple answer to the question of when the war will end: no one anywhere (neither in Moscow, nor in Kyiv, nor in Washington, Berlin or Paris, and especially not in Die Welt) knows when the war will end. At the moment, I do not see any real prerequisites (neither military nor political) for the war to end in the next six months, and with a high probability by the end of the year. I will not speculate further. Most serious analysts believe that the Russian-Ukrainian war is unlikely to end before the end of the US presidential elections. But this is not the decisive factor either. The war may drag on for several more years, and its scale may go beyond the borders of Ukraine. At the same time, peace negotiations may be initiated in parallel, which, however, will not immediately lead to the end of the war.
The decisive factor in ending the war will be the course and results of military operations, the resource provision of the warring parties. But the conditions and the very possibility of ending the war will also be influenced by the development of the socio-political and economic situations in Russia, Ukraine, the USA and the EU, and the general international situation. The combination of these factors will determine both the conditions for ending the war and when it can end.
