Mark Urban, a columnist and diplomatic reporter for The Sunday Times, believes the war between Russia and Ukraine could be approaching a critical phase that could lead to talks between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Highlights:
Signs of exhaustion
Urban's article suggests that the conflict may be entering its "final, difficult phase." Both sides are showing signs of exhaustion. Putin, Urban says, is becoming nervous about Western threats to strike deep into Russia with Western weapons. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also predicts important developments in the coming weeks and months.
Fatigue in Ukraine
Despite Ukrainians’ determination to continue the fight, there are signs of fatigue. A growing number of people in Ukraine support negotiations with Russia, although the majority are still adamantly opposed to any compromises that could threaten Ukraine’s territorial integrity and European integration aspirations.
In addition, there are problems with desertion and lack of motivation among the Ukrainian military and population, which creates additional pressure on the Zelenskyy government.
Russia's problems
There are also serious problems on the Russian side. The Russians are facing huge losses and problems maintaining the conflict. British intelligence estimates Russian losses at 65,000 people in July and August. With a shortage of trained soldiers and high costs, Putin is trying to avoid a general mobilization so as not to worsen the domestic political situation.
The impact of Western weapons
Ukraine is receiving Western weapons, including Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, which could increase Russia’s damage output. These missile systems, while limited in number, could help Ukraine inflict more damage on Russia, which would affect the negotiation process.
US elections and their impact
Putin's indecision may also be related to the outcome of the US presidential election. A victory for Kamala Harris could encourage Russia to cease fire, while a victory for Donald Trump could escalate the situation and jeopardize arms supplies to Ukraine.
Urban's conclusion
Urban notes that the critical question is whether both sides can come to the conclusion that further fighting is futile. For now, negotiations remain possible, but the decision to start them depends on many factors, including the internal situation in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the international context.
