The National Bank of Ukraine reported a decline in the volume of remittances received from abroad to Ukraine in the period from January to March 2024. According to official data, the total volume of transfers decreased by 8.7% and amounted to $2.63 billion.
Ukrainians who have gone abroad are transferring less and less money to Ukraine. The National Bank reported a reduction in the total volume of money transfers coming from abroad to Ukraine in January-March 2024 by 8.7% - to $2.63 billion.
Despite the fact that previously remittances to Ukraine from labor migrants were one of the main channels of foreign exchange inflows into the country.
This trend has been evident since the beginning of the Great War – the amounts transferred by the population from abroad have been decreasing, and now it is becoming even more entrenched.
What can be seen if we compare the volumes in Q1 for different periods:
– Q1 2021 – $3.37 billion;
– Q1 2022 – $3.28 billion;
– Q1 2023 – $2.88 billion;
– Q1 2024 – $2.63 billion.
Experts suggest that the main reason is the departure of migrant workers' families abroad to join them after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. Roughly speaking, many migrant workers simply have no one to transfer money to.
“I think that the growing gap with the homeland is becoming apparent (after the families of migrant workers leave to join them abroad). People simply have no one from their relatives to transfer money to. I also think that the decrease in the level of assistance to Ukrainians from the authorities of various European countries is having an effect,” financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn commented on the situation to “Strane”.
If we look at the data for 12 months, the dynamics of foreign remittances to Ukraine is also rapidly decreasing:
– 2021 – $14.02 billion;
– 2022 – $12.50 billion;
– 2023 – $11.37 billion.
Experts do not expect an increase in the flow of money into the country; on the contrary, they expect a further deterioration of this indicator.
“By the end of 2024, remittances may decrease to $9.8-10.5 billion (from $11.4 billion in 2023). The second quarter will likely be the most indicative of the trend,” Shevchyshyn told Strane.
At the same time, as we have already written, (https://t.me/stranaua/141565) after the start of the full-scale invasion, due to the mass departure of refugees abroad, another process has intensified - the withdrawal of funds by citizens abroad. If earlier the outflow was only at the expense of tourists, now millions of Ukrainians, who continue to receive salaries and pensions on their Ukrainian cards, spend them abroad. According to the NBU, the outflow in this way is $ 35 million daily.
