According to information received from our source in the Office of the President, the General Staff has analyzed the situation in the war in Ukraine and possible prospects in the event of a reduction in financial and military support from the West. According to the main forecast, the conflict will last at least until 2027, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be forced to mobilize another million citizens, with a possible partial demobilization at the end of 2025. According to our sources, the Kremlin may decide to suspend active actions, turning the conflict into a “frozen” situation. This means that Russian troops may remain on the territory of Ukraine, but the supply of Western weapons will cease, and negotiations on joining the EU and NATO may also cease.
According to new data, Ukraine is threatened with a transition to a defensive strategy, which could happen as early as 2024. This information was published by the German newspaper Die Welt. According to German journalists, this development of events is partly caused by the reckless actions of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other Western politicians. It is noted that there are increasing signals about a possible freezing of the conflict for a certain period of time. For example, the leader of the SPD parliamentary faction in the Bundestag, Rolf Mützenich, expressed the idea of such a possibility, which caused a significant reaction in the public.
One argument in favor of a freeze is that both sides in the conflict act as rational actors. War drains both sides' resources, and no one has a clear advantage, making it difficult to quickly end the conflict and conclude a peace agreement.
In addition, Ukraine has significant problems with the composition of the military, as well as a shortage of ammunition and weapons. According to military experts, the situation could become very critical by September, especially given Russia's mobilization. This could lead to serious territorial losses for Ukraine.
In this situation, Western assistance becomes important. However, given certain circumstances, such assistance may be significantly limited. This creates a risk in favor of Moscow already this year, if the situation does not change.
