The small town of Goshcha in Rivne Oblast, with about 5,000 residents, clearly demonstrates the consequences of the demographic crisis in Ukraine. In the neighboring village of Sadovoe, a school that once had over 200 children has closed — now only nine students remain.
"Two years ago we were forced to close this institution... Because there were only nine children left there," said Mykola Panchuk, the head of the Goshchi village council.
According to the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, before the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine had a population of 42 million, but today it has less than 36 million, including residents of temporarily occupied territories. Projections indicate that by 2051 the country's population could decrease to 25 million.
The reasons for the population decline are high mortality, low birth rate and emigration. The average life expectancy of men in 2024 decreased to 57.3 years, and of women to 70.9. Young people and especially young women are moving abroad, which exacerbates the problem of birth rate.
In 2024, the government adopted a demographic strategy until 2040. The document foresees a deficit of 4.5 million workers in the coming decade and focuses on curbing emigration, returning Ukrainians from abroad, developing infrastructure, improving housing conditions, and possibly attracting immigrants. Under an optimistic scenario, Ukraine's population could grow to 34 million by 2040, and under current trends, it could decline to 29 million.
In Goshcha, the number of first-graders is decreasing, and about 10% of school graduates go abroad. The maternity ward of the local hospital lost state funding in 2023 due to low birth rates. The city's population is maintained by the migration of residents from surrounding villages, but young people often postpone having children due to war and economic instability.
