The escalation of fighting for the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast has exposed one of the most serious problems facing Ukraine's defense — a shortage of military personnel, according to a report by the Atlantic Council, a think tank that warns that depletion of reserves is jeopardizing Ukraine's ability to hold the front.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged the difficulty of the situation in the Pokrovsky sector, saying that Ukrainian troops are outnumbered by Russians by eight times. This, analysts say, demonstrates the depth of the personnel crisis after more than three years of war.
“ After three and a half years of heroic and extremely bloody resistance, there are concerns that Ukraine may be approaching a point where it no longer has enough fighters to effectively defend the front ,” the Atlantic Council report notes.
At the start of the full-scale invasion, a massive wave of volunteers allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to increase their army size to around one million soldiers. However, the protracted nature of the war, heavy casualties, fatigue, and desertions gradually depleted human resources.
Some military units are trying to recruit new recruits on their own - through advertising campaigns, videos, and even local initiatives, while official recruitment centers are increasingly embroiled in scandals over forced mobilization.
The key policy decision not to lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 has been a subject of debate both within Ukraine and among allies. Instead, the government has relied on incentive programs for volunteers aged 18–25, but these have not met the needs of the front.
An additional blow was the easing of travel restrictions for young men. According to the Daily Telegraph, after the changes, about 100,000 Ukrainians aged 18–22 left the country in two months. This created not only a military shortage but also a personnel crisis in the civilian sectors.
Although Moscow is also suffering losses, the Russian army continues to actively recruit new fighters — mostly through generous cash rewards and social bonuses. This allows the Kremlin to steadily replenish its troops, gradually creating a numerical advantage along the entire front.
Pokrovsk remains the focal point of fighting in the Donetsk region. Analysts believe the city's fall would be a symbolic and tactical victory for the Kremlin, which is developing a strategy of "victory through attrition."
According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, the enemy is trying to gain a foothold in the city quarters, but there has been no blockade of Pokrovsk.
At the same time, electronic warfare and intelligence specialist Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov noted that Ukraine may be forced to make “unpopular decisions” regarding the city’s defense, as Russian troops are trying to surround it, avoiding a direct assault.
According to the Atlantic Council, the Ukrainian army is now “hardened but exhausted.” It is forced to maintain a defensive posture, preserving manpower even at the cost of temporary retreats.
“ Ukrainian commanders must be prepared to cede territory when necessary to preserve combat resources while inflicting maximum losses on the enemy ,” the experts conclude.
The ultimate goal, analysts say, is to hold the front line until a combination of heavy Russian casualties, economic pressure, and strategic exhaustion forces Moscow to agree to negotiations.
