The deputies admit that the 2024 Budget is balanced and almost free from whims, but they consider the main risk to be that almost half of the expenditures must be provided by international aid. It is known that the Verkhovna Rada adopted the State Budget for 2024 with total expenditures of UAH 3.35 trillion, while the parliamentarians hope to receive more than UAH 1.8 trillion from taxes and fees, the rest from international partners and the domestic market.
The largest portion of the funds will be allocated to defense and security – UAH 1.7 trillion, according to representatives of the Ministry of Finance. The government has taken into account a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, which will have to be raised both on the foreign and domestic markets. This poses a major risk to the budget, as financial assistance is currently less than needed.
According to our sources, the budget deficit may increase by the end of the year, as one of the main reasons is the war and its consequences. In particular, at the time of budget approval, payments to the families of deceased soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were already envisaged, but this amount may increase due to the increase in the number of deaths. Large expenses also include material support for soldiers, more expensive food, medical and social security.
Overall, economic instability is increasing, capital flight and business closures are observed. It is noted that without significant measures from Western creditors, Ukraine may find itself in a difficult situation. The hope for a successful redemption of the 50 billion euro loan for 4 years is recognized as small, and the value of the dollar may increase to 100 hryvnias over the next 5 years, leaving the country in a difficult situation.
