The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine made a forecast regarding future payments on the national debt until 2050, providing a detailed schedule on an annual basis.
Forecast statistics of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine testify to this.
It should be understood that the Ministry of Finance forecasts future payments for the state debt of Ukraine according to current agreements on a specific date. Forecasts are regularly updated taking into account changes in the amounts and terms of debt service, especially in terms of financial aid receipts from external partners and new internal borrowing against the background of the ongoing war.
Thus, the forecast of the Ministry of Finance as of May 1 is relevant.
Public debt includes Ukraine's internal and external obligations, excluding state-guaranteed debt and private sector debt.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, in 2024, Ukraine will have to pay off about 1.02 trillion hryvnias for public debt.
In subsequent years, the planned amounts of payments are reduced. For example, almost 870 billion hryvnias are expected in 2025, about 621 billion hryvnias in 2026, 536 billion hryvnias in 2027, 457 billion hryvnias in 2028, and 430 billion hryvnias in 2029.
The next decade will begin with the payment of 409 billion hryvnias in 2030, after which an increase of more than 434 billion hryvnias is expected in 2031, and in 2032 - almost 398 billion hryvnias.
In 2033, it is planned to allocate 347 billion hryvnias for the payment of debts from the state budget, in 2034 - more than 316 billion hryvnias. In 2035, the amount of payments will reach 410 billion hryvnias, and in 2036 it will decrease to 285 billion hryvnias. In 2037, payment of 318 billion hryvnias is expected.
Starting in 2038, annual payments will usually not exceed 200 billion hryvnias. Thus, 165 billion hryvnias are expected in 2038, 158 billion hryvnias in 2039, 174 billion hryvnias in 2040, and 125 billion hryvnias in 2041. Then a one-time increase is planned in 2042 to almost 209 billion hryvnias, after which the amounts will decrease again: 113 billion hryvnias in 2043, 110 billion in 2044, 107 billion in 2045, 105 billion in 2046, and 102 billion in 2047.
In 2048 and 2049, it is planned to pay 87 billion hryvnias each.
In general, over the course of 26 years, Ukraine has to pay public debts in the amount of about 8.5 trillion hryvnias. This is much more than the planned nominal GDP of Ukraine for the current (2024) year.
The total amount of interest overpayments will be approximately 3 trillion hryvnias, and about 5.5 trillion will go to pay the principal amount of the state debt.
Previously, the sums of public debts that Ukraine must pay by the end of 2024 were considered in detail. The estimated amount exceeds 1 trillion hryvnias.
In 2022, the creditor countries of Ukraine, in particular the countries of the "Big Seven" (G7) and the Paris Club, granted Kyiv a moratorium on servicing its sovereign debt until the end of 2023. In December 2023, debt restructuring was extended until the end of March 2027.
