"Poland exported goods worth 12.3 billion dollars to Ukraine. While Ukraine imported goods from Poland worth 6.6 billion dollars. We are extremely grateful to Poland for its comprehensive support in resisting Russian aggression, but in the case of blocking automobile customs crossings, this is a real "shot in the foot". Opinion.
In a thriller or a tragicomedy called "foreign trade with Poland" I would like to highlight a problem that few pay attention to. This is a glaring discrepancy between the customs statistics of Ukraine and Poland. It is primarily about Polish imports to Ukraine. Data on our exports to Poland do not have significant discrepancies.
So, in 2023, according to the Polish Office of Statistics, Poland exported goods to Ukraine worth 12.3 billion dollars. Whereas, according to the data of the State State of Ukraine, Ukraine imported goods from Poland in the amount of 6.6 billion dollars. The difference is almost double.
In 2022-2023, this discrepancy is partly related to the accounting of the import of weapons, ammunition, and dual-purpose goods. These statistics are not included in the database of foreign trade of the Central State of Ukraine, but are included in the customs statistics of Poland . I will not publish these figures here, although at the level of a summary by product group, they are open on the website of the Statistical Office of Poland. But I will say that these "military and near-military" statistics do not explain even half of this discrepancy.
In fact, this problem is very, very many years old, and it has been fixed all the time since the beginning of zero, for which there are comparable statistics. I will provide sample data for recent years:
- 2007: according to Ukrainian statistics, we imported $2.9 billion from Poland. (according to Polish statistics, by 5.5 billion dollars);
- 2012: $3.6 billion. ($5.3 billion);
- 2018: $3.6 billion. ($5.3 billion);
- 2021: 5 billion dollars. ($7.4 billion);
- 2022: $5.6 billion. ($10.1 billion).
With all the "methodological" differences in keeping statistics and corrections to military statistics, it is obvious that the main source of discrepancy in customs data is gray import / contraband, and sometimes non-existent imports from Poland to Ukraine (for the purpose of obtaining a VAT refund).
Whatever the reasons, it is obvious that the actual balance of trade with Poland is much more negative for us than it appears from official statistics, due to the underestimation of imports. Whereas, according to their statistics, Ukraine is a bigger partner for Poland as an importing country.
Bilateral trade is more profitable for Poland, especially given the existing asymmetric restrictions on our agricultural exports (where we have already agreed to compromises)
In particular, according to the data of the Polish State Government, in 2023 Ukraine accounted for 3.2% of all merchandise exports from Poland. According to this indicator, we were in 7th place among trading partners, surpassing the USA and such EU members as Spain, Slovakia, and Hungary. At the same time, the growth dynamics of Polish exports to Ukraine in 2023 was the greatest, if we take the first ten countries — the largest trading partners.
What am I leading all this to? And to the fact that we are extremely grateful to Poland for its comprehensive support in resisting Russian aggression, but in the case of blocking automobile customs crossings, this is a real shot in the foot. Because our bilateral trade is generally more profitable for Poland anyway, especially given the existing asymmetric restrictions on our agricultural exports (where we have already agreed to compromises).
I don't know what other arguments and facts from a set of common sense logic we have to adduce to make this clear. Attempts to resolve trade disputes in the "win-lose" style between neighbors are a kind of story in which everyone loses, and first of all Poland, its businesses and end consumers.
