As a result of the ongoing war initiated by Russia, Ukrainian society and the state are facing a number of complex challenges, especially in the field of demography. One of the key aspects of these difficulties is the demographic situation in Ukraine, which arose during the conflict and will continue to affect the country after the cessation of hostilities.
For the past 10 years, the war has been going on in Donbas, once the most densely populated region of Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of people were forced to leave the region, and some cities were destroyed and devastated. The murders of Ukrainian citizens, which continue as a result of Russian aggression, also significantly affect the demographic picture. The large number of emigrants forced to leave the country by the invasion also contributes to this challenge.
Even after the end of active hostilities, demographic problems for Ukraine will not end. Oleksandr Gladun, doctor of economics, corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and deputy director of scientific work at the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after Mykhailo Ptuha, shared his convictions about future difficulties.
According to him, the war unleashed by Russia seriously complicates the work of demographers, making many aspects difficult to change. The partially occupied territory, the lack of full registration of demographic events and the large number of refugees abroad create significant difficulties in obtaining accurate demographic information.
Gladun emphasized that the current situation is also characterized by a large external migration. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that more than 6 million people have become refugees, while experts point to a similar number of internally displaced people. This significantly affects demographic statistics, complicating the task of experts.
In its attempt to forecast the demographic situation in Ukraine, the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after Mykhailo Ptuha took into account various difficulties. In particular, it was necessary to adjust the data on the number of the population, taking into account the length of the period since the last census in 2001, as well as to take into account the peculiarities of labor migration, which turned into a permanent one.
Gladun pointed out that the war has its own characteristics in demographic processes, and only after its end can one hope for a more stable picture. The Institute's forecast covers the period until 2037, assuming that the war will end in late 2024-2025.
Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography, emphasizes that his forecast for Ukraine is based on the borders of 1991. According to his forecast, by the beginning of 2037, the population of Ukraine will decrease to approximately 30.5 million people, which means a rapid reduction of 10-12 million people within 15 years.
The main challenge for the country remains the rapid reduction of the population, which will be relevant even after the end of the war. In addition, the aging of the population is becoming a serious issue, since the birth rate was at a low level even before the war. This can cause the aging of the population, since a higher birth rate is required to maintain a stable population.
Oleksandr Gladun emphasizes that changing the sex-age structure is another challenge. Ukraine already had a low birth rate before the war, and more children are needed to avoid rapid population decline. However, at present, 100 women give birth to only 116 children, which is half the number needed to maintain a stable population.
The problem affects even the system of higher education, as the trend of reducing the number of school graduates leads to discussions about the possible reduction of higher education institutions.
Post-war migration is another serious challenge. Experts believe that the return of at least half of the 6.3 million people who are abroad will be a positive situation. However, the duration of the war may affect counter-migration flows, which makes accurate forecasts difficult.
One of the key problems leading to population decline is the low birth rate. After the war, there may be a compensatory increase in the birth rate, but experts do not foresee a significant baby boom. We hope for a small increase in the birth rate in the 2-3 years after the war, but the general trends will depend on many factors.
The future of the occupied territories after the Russian aggression against Ukraine is in doubt due to the destruction of cities and important infrastructure facilities. A special problem is determining the prospects for the restoration of these territories and the economic structure after the end of hostilities.
However, the most pressing issue is the number and structure of the population in the occupied territories, which currently remains uncertain. It is noted that some part of the population are foreigners, collaborators and members of illegal armed groups, who may be liquidated or emigrate. Therefore, the future of these territories will depend on many factors, including state policy and the duration of the war.
Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography, emphasizes that the number of people who will return from abroad and those who have moved to other regions of Ukraine will depend on many factors, such as the duration of the conflict and the recovery policy. This includes issues of housing recovery, job creation and infrastructure.
One of the key problems is the issue of the border areas, where even after victory, a threat from Russia may remain. Thus, solving these problems will require the cooperation of numerous government institutions and clear development plans to ensure the return and sustainable development of these areas.
Looking at the current situation in Ukraine, it appears that the labor shortage has already become a recognized problem, especially due to military events, when a large part of the working population is in service or has emigrated. After the end of the conflict, this dynamic may change, but the real extent of the changes will be known only after the end of hostilities and the development of a clear plan for economic recovery.
The deputy director of the Institute of Demography, Oleksandr Gladun, expresses the opinion that in the case of insufficient labor force, the possibilities of active involvement of migrants are being considered. However, he warns about the difficulties of such an approach, especially taking into account the adverse impact of the mass migration flow on the socio-cultural and ethnic structure of the population.
Expressing indignation at the possible overstretching of the labor force through migration, the expert notes that it is important to choose strategic approaches that do not create social or economic problems. He emphasizes that creating own conditions for Ukrainians to make their return more attractive is a key element.
In particular, Oleksandr Gladun points to the need to restore housing and develop the domestic economy. He determines that the stimulation of return should take place through the creation of favorable conditions in Ukraine, and not only through financial payments. This approach will contribute to maintaining the efficiency and stability of Ukrainian society.
