In Estonia, a four-tiered banner that combines the flags of Ukraine and Estonia hangs over the main square of the capital, Tallinn. In Latvia, Minister of Foreign Affairs Krishjanis Karins calls on allies to "immediately increase military support for Ukraine."
And the leader of Lithuania, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi began a tour of the Baltic states on Wednesday, recently made a stark plea to help Kiev hold the line against invading Russian troops as Ukraine's support for the war elsewhere in Europe threatens to fragment.
"For all those who say they are tired of the war in Ukraine - a reminder to terrorist Russia that there are no limits to its cruelty and bloodlust," wrote Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda on the social media platform X on December 29, an hour after Russian missiles and drones attacked cities throughout Ukraine.
Hardly anywhere is the emotional stake in Ukraine's war effort stronger than in the Baltic states, where three former Soviet states declared independence at the end of the Cold War to escape pressure from Russia. Mr Zelenskiy's trip there this week, an early diplomatic effort in 2024, comes as he tries to win support for his war effort from a bastion of political support, while other European countries show growing fatigue and financial strain from a war that began nearly two years ago.
On Wednesday, Mr. Zelenskyi said that his trip, during which he will also visit Tallinn in Estonia and Riga in Latvia, was aimed at showing Ukraine's gratitude for Ukraine's "uncompromising support since 2014 and especially now, during the full-scale aggression of Russia."
Pavlo Klimkin, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, said that this trip was aimed "to involve our friends who are close to us in terms of Russia, to seek help in DC, in Brussels, because this help is critical for us now."
With more American aid in doubt — Republicans in Congress continue to block about $61 billion in arms and other aid — European leaders face the prospect of filling as much of the gap as possible to maintain support for Ukraine.
But a financial retreat by the United States, which has given Ukraine more military aid than any other single country, could also provide political cover for European officials seeking to reduce their support for the war.
"Personally, I believe that we need to act faster and more decisively to support Ukraine, because Russia represents a serious strategic threat to the European Union, even if I have to admit that not all member states agree on the nature of this threat," he said. . The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell Fontelles, wrote in an essay this month.
He added: “Does disunity on this existential issue threaten the future of the European Union? At this stage, it is impossible to say."
Experts say most European governments remain committed to helping Ukraine defeat Russia — in part to avoid the prospect of President Vladimir Putin moving further west with his imperialist ambitions. Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Europe has rallied around Ukraine with greater unity than it showed against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow on Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
But overall support for the war effort is waning. A survey conducted by the European Commission and released last month showed that European support for providing Ukraine with additional financial and military aid fell slightly last fall compared to the summer.
Even if political support from Europe persists, Mr Gould-Davis said governments may find it difficult to maintain the level of military and economic aid flowing to Kyiv.
"The real concern at the moment is not whether the West or Europe will continue to support Ukraine," Mr Gould-Davis said. "It depends on whether he will continue to practically commit the required level of resources, especially militarily." He called it "partly a factor of will, partly a factor of ability." Some political cracks have already surfaced.
Chief among them is Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, who last month blocked the European Union's plan to send Ukraine about $52 billion in aid. The recently elected prime minister of Slovakia and a far-right Dutch politician aspiring to become the next prime minister of the Netherlands have also called for cuts in aid to Ukraine.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Maloney described "great fatigue" among supporters of Ukraine during a September phone call in which she believed she was talking to African envoys. As it turned out, she was lured into the prank call by two Russian comedians, and in a recording of the conversation released in November, Ms. Maloney said: "We're close to the point where everybody knows we need a way out."
Officials in the Baltics, Scandinavian countries and eastern Europe say they are increasingly worried that the differences could lead to Ukraine's imminent defeat, prompting Mr. Putin to send troops to former Soviet republics and satellite states.
"Every neighbor of Russia has good reason to worry," said Kalev Stoicescu, chairman of the National Defense Committee in the Estonian parliament. "Russia literally behaves like a predator," he added. "It tastes like blood."
At a press conference in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, on Wednesday, Mr. Zelenskyi said that "partners' uncertainty about financial and military aid to Ukraine" sometimes "only increases Russia's courage and strength." A recent report by the Estonian Ministry of Defense clearly describes what it wants from NATO to prevent this and win the war in Ukraine.
It states that Ukrainian forces must acquire sufficient training and firepower — to produce at least 200,000 rounds of 155mm artillery each month — to kill or seriously injure at least 50,000 Russian troops every six months. This is far more than the European Union and the United States combined can currently provide.
In Germany, officials approved Chancellor Olaf Scholz's plans to double aid to Ukraine this year to about $8.8 billion, and recent arms shipments to the front included more anti-aircraft missiles, tank ammunition and artillery shells.
But the government has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles that could hit Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, or deep into Russian-controlled territory. That reluctance has prompted some to "look at our actions with concern and ask ourselves whether our support is sufficient," as former German President Joachim Hauck said in an interview published Sunday. On Monday, Mr. Scholz said that Germany's contributions alone will not be enough to guarantee Ukraine's security in the long term.
"Arms deliveries to Ukraine planned for today by most EU member states are in any case too small," said Mr. Scholz during a press conference with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg. He added: "Europe must demonstrate that it stands firmly on the side of Ukraine, on the side of freedom, international law and European values."
One future test of Europe's resolve, Mr. Gould-Davis said, is whether the European Union will agree to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars in frozen Russian central bank assets held in European financial institutions. The United States of America is considering similar proposals.
"It will, by the way, reduce the pressure on Western taxpayers," Mr Gould-Davies said. He said Europe also needed to ramp up defense production to arm Ukraine — a process that could take years — but pointed to the 12 rounds of sanctions the bloc has imposed on Russia as a sign of continued support.
According to the Kiel Institute of World Economics, the countries of the European Union and the institutions of the bloc jointly provided Ukraine with about $145 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid as of October 2023 — almost twice as much as the United States during the same period. This is expected to continue, albeit to a lesser extent.
At least for now, supporting Ukraine "remains the main task of the Swedish government's foreign policy in the coming years," Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Björstrom said this week.
