In seven countries of Western Europe, a sharp drop in support for Ukraine in the war against Russian aggression was recorded. According to polls, most Europeans now prefer peace talks, even if it means concessions to Russia in terms of control over part of Ukrainian territories.
A December YouGov poll in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and Great Britain found that the public's willingness to support Ukraine to victory – even if it means continuing the war – has fallen in all seven countries over the past 12 months.
Support for a negotiated end to hostilities, even if it would leave Russia in control of part of Ukraine, has grown in every country. As the survey showed, this option was the most desirable in four countries.
The poll showed that readiness to support Ukraine to defeat Russia remains high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), and in Great Britain - 36%, but these indicators decreased by 14 points compared to January's figures of 57%, 51% and 50%.
Over the same period, the percentage of respondents who prefer a negotiated peace rose to 55% from 45% in Italy, 46% (38%) in Spain, 43% (35%) in France and 45% (38%) in Germany, which was accompanied by a corresponding drop in willingness to support Ukraine to victory.
It is not clear whether this shift reflects a decline in interest or an increase in fatigue. In France, Germany and Sweden, the share of those who want Ukraine to win and are worried about it has remained stable since the beginning of 2023, although it has decreased in other countries.
Less than a month after Trump's return, a majority or near-majority of respondents in all but one country believe that the US president-elect is most likely to end support for Ukraine: 62% of Germans, 60% of Spaniards, 56% of the British, 52% of the French and 48% Italians
Respondents were less certain that Trump will withdraw the US from the NATO defense alliance: Danes, Germans, Italians, Spaniards and Swedes believe that this will not happen, while the opinions of the British and French were equally divided.
People are also divided on how they view a peace settlement that would leave Russia in control of at least some of the parts of Ukraine it illegally seized after the February 2022 invasion, as some say Trump plans.
The majority of respondents in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%) and Great Britain (51%), as well as a significant minority (43%) in Spain said they would be very or somewhat negative about such an agreement, while in France such 37%, and in Germany and Italy – 31%.
The survey showed that the majority of Western Europeans believe that Ukraine's allies have not done enough, both in terms of economic sanctions against Moscow and in terms of military and other assistance to Kyiv.
About 66% of Danes, 63% of Swedes and Spaniards, 59% of Britons, 53% of Germans and Italians, and 52% of French said that overall aid to Ukraine was either not at all or not nearly enough. However, only a few believe that their country should increase support.
A minority – from 29% in Sweden, 21% in the UK and Germany, 14% in France and just 11% in Italy – believe that their government should increase aid to Ukraine, with majorities in each country saying that aid should be either preserved or reduced.
As for specific measures, such as tightening sanctions, supplying more weapons, sending more troops to support NATO members in Eastern Europe, or coordinating airstrikes against Russian targets in Ukraine, their support remained unchanged or was lower than before.
When asked what they think the situation will be like a year from now, few Western Europeans think Russia or Ukraine will win, and most think the two countries will either still be at war or negotiating for peace.
The end of the war is considered more likely by residents of Denmark (47%), Germany (40%), Great Britain and France (38%) and Italy (36%), while the continuation of hostilities is considered a slightly more likely scenario by residents of Spain (36%) and Sweden ( 35 %).
