Ukraine achieves important breakthrough: first successful ballistic missile tests

“I thought it was too early to talk about it, but there has already been a test – positive – of the first Ukrainian ballistic missile. I congratulate our defense industry on this,” the head of state said, but did not provide details.

According to him, the fact of creating its own ballistics shows the high level of Ukrainian defense industry specialists.

Back in July, Zelensky spoke about the “good dynamics” of the Ukrainian missile program.

"Our missile program has good momentum, and although it is a difficult task, we are gradually approaching the ability to use our own missiles, and not only rely on supplies from partners.".

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian army already has ballistic missiles in service.

These are the old Soviet Tochka-U complexes, which have a range of only 120 km and a very limited number of missiles. As well as the American ATACMS, which can hit at a distance of 300 km, but the White House stubbornly forbids Kiev from using them on Russian territory.

Therefore, creating its own long-range ballistic missile has been a priority for the Ukrainian defense industry in recent years.

In order to understand why this is an extraordinary breakthrough, it is necessary to recall what ballistic missiles actually are and why Ukraine has been unable to create them for almost 20 years.

What is a ballistic missile and how is it used?

Unlike a cruise missile, a ballistic missile in the final stage attacks the target almost vertically and at high speed, leaving very little chance for air defense to intercept it.

Such missiles can be launched from land-based stationary or mobile launchers, as well as from ships, submarines, and aircraft.

Missiles can carry high-explosive fragmentation, cluster, and even nuclear warheads.

By range, ballistics is divided into short range (250-1000 km), medium range (1000-2500-4500 km) and intercontinental (4500-6000 km).

The power, speed, and accuracy of ballistic missiles have made them one of the most important types of precision weapons in the Russian army.

The destruction of very important targets in the Ukrainian theater of operations and in the rear of the territory is carried out precisely by ballistics - most often by Iskander-M missiles.

These are powerful missiles 7.2 m long with a warhead weighing almost 500 kg, flying at a speed of 2100 m/s in the final stage.

That is, the Iskander can cover its maximum range (400-500 km) in 5-6 minutes. Considering that the Russians launch it from much closer distances, this approach time is even shorter.

The Russians used Iskanders, in particular, to strike military airfields in Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad regions, and to attack HIMARS and Patriot missile systems.

Typically, the attacks went something like this: a Russian reconnaissance drone would find a target, transmit its coordinates, and a ballistic missile would hit the enemy target a couple of minutes later.

Frequent and fairly effective use has led to Russia likely significantly depleting its stockpile of ballistic missiles, forcing it to turn to North Korea for help, which has provided its missiles and has already used them repeatedly to strike Ukraine.

Shooting down ballistic missiles is one of the most difficult tasks for the Ukrainian air defense. Information released by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, indicates that since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russian Federation has launched 1,300 Iskander ballistic missiles, of which only 56 have been intercepted.

Therefore, for the Russian-Ukrainian war, ballistics plays an extremely important role, giving a significant advantage to one of the sides.

Accordingly, the creation of a Ukrainian ballistic missile should be a priority task for the Ukrainian defense industry. The only problem is that it has not been able to do this for the past 20 years.

History of Ukrainian ballistics

Ukraine began thinking about creating its own ballistics in the early 2000s during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko.

Then it was announced the development of the operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) “Sapsan”, which was actually supposed to be an analogue of the Russian “Iskander”. The Ukrainian complex was also supposed to strike at a maximum range of up to 500 km and have a warhead weighing about half a ton.

The project was scheduled to be completed in 2012, but a lack of funding delayed the project. It was abruptly halted during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych in June 2013.

The complete cancellation of the Sapsan project was announced by then-Defense Minister Pavel Lebedev. He is currently wanted for treason and, according to preliminary information, is hiding in Russia-annexed Crimea.

However, in 2016, it became known about the revival of the Sapsan project under the export name “Thunder-2”. Ukraine allegedly began creating this OTRK with a range of up to 280 km at the request of Saudi Arabia.

In February 2021, Defense Minister Andriy Taran stated that the Sapsan was 80% ready and “it is necessary to take the final step” and complete the first sample of this latest weapon.

However, in April of the same year, his deputy Andriy Myronyuk stated that the level of production of the first OTRK battery was 70%.

This battery was to contain two launchers and loading machines, as well as two control machines, at divisional and battery level, to conduct the entire set of tests in the shortest possible time.

After the start of the full-scale war, official information about the Ukrainian missile program became even less. At the same time, Russia has already publicly reported several times about the shooting down of supposedly Ukrainian ballistic missiles "Thunder-2".

In addition, Ukrainian law enforcement officers detained an employee of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau on suspicion of espionage in the fall of 2022. According to the investigation, she provided Russian special services with information about the stage of production of the Sapsan at her own enterprise.

According to her, as of the summer of 2022, this missile system was at the stage of readiness and product release.

Already in August 2024, military expert and head of the "Return Alive" foundation, Taras Chmut, stated in an interview that Ukraine is currently developing three modifications of the "Sapsan", but did not disclose how they differ.

“Unfortunately, the state of Ukraine found funding for these complexes only in 2022,” he noted.

Military analyst Mykola Beleskov hints that President Zelensky's statement is specifically about the successful test of a ballistic missile for the Sapsan complex.

“A little over 11 years from cancellation to successful test,” he wrote on Facebook, adding a screenshot of the news about the cancellation of the Sapsan project in June 2013.

However, it should be emphasized that it is too early to say how successful this development is in combat conditions. Only time will tell. If the Ukrainian ballistic missile turns out to be fast, powerful and accurate enough, then even Moscow could be under threat. The distance from the Russian capital to the Ukrainian border is approximately 460 km.

Air Force military commentator Pavlo Aksyonov — about the first Ukrainian ballistic missile

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the test of a Ukrainian ballistic missile two days after it became known that Ukrainians had created the Palanytsia cruise missile.

There is nothing surprising in this announcement. Ukraine is a country that has had a developed aviation industry since Soviet times, with large rocket enterprises operating — KB Luch and Yuzhmash. Ukraine built airplanes and space rockets.

Even in wartime, when the Ukrainian defense industry is under Russian missile strikes and its work is complicated, specialists and technologies remain in the country. Therefore, the development of a ballistic missile is not completely improbable.

Unlike the “Palyanytsia”, about which little is known, but at least its range, dimensions and launch system, nothing is known about the ballistic missile. Meanwhile, the Soviet MLRS “Grad”, the longer-range Ukrainian “Vilkhy” and the American MGM-140 ATACMS can be considered ballistic missiles.

If this new missile is of the operational-tactical class, like the Tochka U or ATACMS, and if Ukraine is able to produce it together with cruise missiles, then their joint use will greatly complicate the situation in the border regions of Russia - a combined attack by several different means of destruction is very difficult to repel. In addition, no one will be able to limit the use of these means against targets in Russia.

It is difficult to assess the potential of these weapons at this time—almost nothing is known about them, including their readiness and production capabilities. However, it is safe to say that, in the face of limited Western supplies, Ukrainians are determined to arm themselves.