Ukraine is planning a strategic course for 2024, focusing on strengthening the country’s defense capabilities, mass-producing drones, and expanding its own weapons production. The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Valeriy Zaluzhny, outlined these areas in a new strategy that has found support in Bankova.
The plans also call for further strikes on Russian rear areas, including military facilities and infrastructure such as energy, refineries, ports, and military-industrial complex enterprises.
Ukraine hopes to use these measures to weaken the enemy and create the prerequisites for a new offensive by the Armed Forces by 2025. While Russia rarely expresses its strategic intentions, two possible vectors of action can be distinguished.
One vector is a strategy of attrition, which consists in gradually disabling Ukraine by strengthening the front and using Russia's superiority in numbers and weapons. However, this strategy not only carries the risks of prolonging the conflict, but may also face difficulties such as the inability to predict the timing and real casualties.
Another option is to try to drastically shift the balance of power on the front without using nuclear weapons. However, this may be a difficult task, as Russia is also developing its own military technology, including drones and artificial intelligence.
For Ukraine, this could mean severe challenges on the front, especially if Russia decides to launch a new offensive, which could happen after mobilization. Regardless of the choice of strategy, the outcome will depend on many factors, including the ability of both sides to mobilize their resources and provide effective leadership.
