A recent article published in CNBC under the headline “Ukraine May Continue to War with Russia, but the Desired ‘Victory’ May Be Unattainable” drew the attention of the public and the expert community to the difficulties that Ukraine faces in its struggle with the Russian Federation.
Experts believe that Ukraine and its allies do not have a common vision of what “victory” means and what steps and resources will be needed to achieve it. They consider reaching the 1991 borders unrealistic in the near and medium term, given the Russian Federation’s military potential and superiority in mobilization resources.
Kyiv military expert Oleksandr Musienko believes that the transfer of American aid to Ukraine has raised morale in society, and therefore the leadership currently has no desire to discuss a potential end to the war, which does not involve a complete victory.
But overall, “the share of the Ukrainian population that is willing to consider territorial concessions in exchange for a cessation of hostilities/peace is consistently growing,” notes Andrius Tursa, advisor for Central and Eastern Europe at consulting firm Teneo.
Therefore, he suggests that discussions about alternative options for ending the war, acceptable to Ukraine, may intensify later in 2024.
According to Musienko, a ceasefire is possible if the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to weaken and exhaust the Russian army in the coming months, and Ukraine receives reliable guarantees of security and defense.
“[In such a scenario] the Ukrainians will not have enough forces to liberate the old territory, according to the international border, and the Russians will not have enough forces to occupy a larger territory,” says Musienko.
In that case, Ukraine would retain its independence and sovereignty, and “simply wait like East and West Germany” until their reunification in 1990.
“This is the scenario we can expect in reality,” says Musienko.
