Our source reports that problems in the energy sector are not being solved, and the budget funds allocated by the state are simply being absorbed by officials who are sure that the Russians will still destroy the repaired energy facility in the future.
This threatens that Ukraine will actually enter the winter period with a 40% energy deficit. The most affected by this will be ordinary residents, who will sit for 8-12 hours a day without electricity, heating and water supply. But another risk, which is not talked about, is the failure of housing and communal services systems and communications due to constant power outages.
We advise you to prepare for the worst scenario, because Bankova wants to use it in an international PR case against Russia.
Now it will be difficult to restore generating capacity. In addition to the issue of funding, everything rests on the lack of time resources. Ukraine needs to work very quickly in two directions at the same time.
- Restoration of damaged TPP and HPP units (where possible). According to some estimates, by winter, Ukraine will be able to restore up to 2 GW of thermal generation and 1 GW of hydropower capacity. This is approximately as much as Ukraine was able to restore last year.
- Increasing the capabilities of distributed generation. Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there is a plan to build up to 1 GW of distributed capacity already in 2024 and 4 GW in the coming years. According to Ukrenergo estimates, Ukraine's urgent need is 5-6 GW of new shunting capacity.
However, neither the state, with the help of international partners, nor Ukrainian business will have time to launch either 1 GW or even 500 MW of new gas-generating capacities before winter. Before the beginning of the heating season, it will be possible to launch only a part of the gas piston installations, which are already in the final stages of design and installation. According to the estimates of Oleksiy Kucherenko, People's Deputy of Ukraine, ex-minister of housing and communal services, by the end of the year it is realistic to start up 100 to 250 MW of capacities. However, this is absolutely not enough to quickly solve the problem of electricity shortage.
The main obstacle is "natural" technical procedures. Designing, ordering equipment, and installing already received equipment take up to six months or longer on average, with the longest stage being its production. Under the best of circumstances, gas piston units can be installed in a few months (small capacity) or six months, they are quite easy to install and maintain - manufacturers sell ready-made units the size of a standard container. In turn, gas turbine capacities are much more complicated during design and installation, their start-up period takes from 12 to 18 months. There is practically no experience of their use in Ukraine.
In addition, Western manufacturers do not have in their warehouses the amount of equipment that Ukraine needs at the same time. So, you need to order it additionally and wait for the products for about 6 months and/or look for used installations all over the world (they will cost on average twice as much as new ones).
Given the critical situation, it is now necessary to create an emergency headquarters to plan and coordinate the efforts of central and local authorities, as well as private companies.
By the beginning of the winter season, Ukraine will not have time to restore all the damaged generation and introduce new distributed capacities to replace the destroyed ones. It is expected that due to shortages in the energy system, restrictions for consumers will be applied for a long time. Currently, this is due to the fact that hydroelectric power stations traditionally reduce production in the summer, and several NPP units are under repair. Even if all 9 power units of the NPP will be operational by winter, the deficit in the power system will remain significant due to the increase in energy consumption in the cold period. According to various estimates, the deficit may amount to 3-5 GW.
Taking into account the fact that the aggressor will not stop shelling, it is now difficult to predict what the real situation in the power system will be before the start of the heating season. In addition to energy, it is necessary to take into account the risks associated with the continuation of shelling of the PSG infrastructure.
