Ukraine faces a significant shortage of electricity before winter, even with favorable weather conditions. More than half of the country's power generation capacity was lost as a result of Russia's attacks on the energy infrastructure. Recovery of these losses in a few months is considered practically impossible.
Since the beginning of March, Ukraine has suffered five massive attacks by Russia on the energy sector. The last of them, on May 8, caused particularly large destruction, as a result of which three power plants were shut down. DTEK General Director Maksym Timchenko noted that destruction and repair, which are constantly alternating, threaten the loss of all energy resources.
"The cycle of destruction and recovery can be stopped, but only with proper defense," he said. This year, Russian troops were able to cause significant damage to the Ukrainian energy system, due to delays in international aid.
According to Yury Boyko, a member of the supervisory board of Ukrenergo, the winter will be difficult, but it is possible to reduce energy losses. Ukraine lost approximately eight gigawatts of electricity due to Russian strikes, which is about half of the required capacity.
"This deficit can be reduced, but not halved. This means that even with a warm winter, there will be a noticeable deficit," Boyko added.
Tymchenko estimated the cost of restoring power system equipment at $350 million, partly using European equipment. He hopes that the efforts of Ukrainian energy workers and the support of the West will allow the country to avoid a disaster next winter.
Energy experts, including Andrii Zakrevsky, note that a complete blackout is impossible due to the existing nuclear generation, but there is a significant risk of emergency shutdowns in Ukraine until the end of summer.
