“During the New Year celebrations, when many people celebrated it with fireworks, good mood and the company of their relatives, Ukrainians witnessed massive air strikes by the Russian military. These attacks lead to the destruction of their homes and the loss of loved ones, reports British historian and author Timothy Garton Ash in his column for The Financial Times.
“Vladimir Putin intends to defeat and destroy an independent Ukraine, which in turn is ready to stand its ground. However, the question that Garton Ash raises concerns what the other democratic countries of the world want in this epic confrontation,” the author writes.
According to him, the answer that the world gives in 2024 will be decisive for the future of Europe and important for understanding the forces of democracy and autocracy at the beginning of the 21st century. Garton Ash believes that there is currently no reason for a frozen conflict in Ukraine or a negotiated solution with Russia, as it may seem naively in the West.
“We are in the midst of a long and complex war that will likely last until at least 2025, if not longer,” he notes. “Even if one side emerges victorious, both sides are unlikely to give in.”
Putin uses all his advantages, such as scale, ruthlessness, and dictatorial style of governance in Russia, and has the support of other similar regimes abroad, including in Iran, North Korea, and China.
Ukraine faces an important choice, including whether it should commit to conscripting many young men to restore “its tired and exhausted forces.” But the decisive factor, the historian believes, will be the choices made by Kyiv’s pro-democracy allies in the coming months.
Right now, he believes, Western countries are doing enough to prevent Ukraine from losing, but not enough to help it win. “In 2024, we could give Kyiv the tools to take back more territory and convince Russia that it cannot win. This is the only path to a lasting peace,” the author of the article believes.
He also believes that Ukraine’s air defenses need to be immediately strengthened and more long-range missiles, including German Taurus and American ATACMS, should be supplied. This, he says, will help Ukraine push back Putin’s Black Sea Fleet and move against “his strategic and symbolic stronghold in Crimea.”.
However, according to the latest study by the Estonian Ministry of Defense, the long-term success factor for Kyiv will be intensive training of Ukrainian troops and an immediate significant increase in the industrial production of weapons and ammunition, reports Timothy Garton Ash.
The author notes that of the one million artillery shells that the European Union promised to deliver to Ukraine by March, less than a third have been received so far. It is noted that the differences between democracies and dictatorships are that democracies cannot act on command, and their political system requires leaders to agree on clear strategic goals and convince voters and parliaments to approve the necessary measures.
Even in light of the possible crisis caused by Donald Trump's second term, it is becoming obvious that the United States, given the crisis of its own country's democracy, is in no hurry to make such decisions.
Thus, according to the historian, the responsibility for these steps lies with Europe, since it is ultimately about protecting a European country.
Garton Ash examines the New Year's addresses of European leaders and provides them with a comparative analysis.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak did not include a mention of the war in Ukraine in his report on his government's achievements, which is likely due to the holding of this year's parliamentary elections.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz only mentioned the conflict in passing, moving on to the main topic of his country's economy.
Poland's new Prime Minister Donald Tusk has taken it upon himself to dedicate his speech to restoring democracy in his country.
French President Emmanuel Macron focused on the theme of French pride and expressed the idea of “rearming European sovereignty,” in particular with the aim of “stopping Russia and supporting Ukrainians.”.
The most significant, according to the historian, was the address of the President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö: “Europe must wake up.”.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed a straightforward position, recalling that Ukraine lacks ammunition and Europe is not providing the necessary assistance.
“We are focused on increasing European production. This is an urgent need. Danish F16s will soon take to the skies again. The war in Ukraine is also a war for Europe as we know it,” she noted.
Garton Ash believes that such a diverse approach is important in these times. Speaking about military leadership, he recalled Winston Churchill's statement about the need for "blood, toil, tears and sweat", but notes that in this case Ukraine is already making an important contribution, and what is needed from others is clarity of thought, determination and a wise allocation of resources.
