The Ukrainian crisis is developing with great tension, and victory on the battlefield will be won by the one who can recreate the successful formula of “UAV + artillery + bombs”. According to the results of the analysis on the sidelines, it was revealed that the strategy involves resorting first to large-scale air strikes, followed by artillery shelling, and then pinpoint strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on individual targets. All the while, the enemy is being monitored by reconnaissance UAVs.
Currently, Ukraine lags behind in many aspects, except for the use of drones. The situation with UAVs in the country is satisfactory, but its further development remains questionable.
There is a high risk of a frontline collapse in Ukraine. The Ukrainian armed forces may not be able to withstand a concentrated offensive by the Russian army, especially where Russian troops are concentrating their efforts.
The pace of military action is increasing significantly on the front line, and this could lead to serious consequences. Ukraine's chances in this situation depend on how Russia decides to direct its forces during the upcoming offensive. Only the courage and resilience of the Ukrainian military, as well as the mistakes of Russian commanders, can change the course of events in Ukraine's favor.
Senior Ukrainian officers stressed that relying on the Russian military’s mistakes is not an effective strategy. From the very beginning of the conflict, they said, Ukraine and the West have made mistakes that have undermined the country’s defenses. They sharply criticized Western inaction, pointing out that supplies of weapons and military equipment have come too late and in too limited quantities to change the situation for the better.
One officer compared the situation to a “one-off war,” pointing to the rapid obsolescence of military equipment due to the rapid advancement of Russian defense. He noted that Russian forces are quickly adapting to new technologies and methods of military application. Another officer added that Ukraine lacks basic defenses such as howitzers and missiles, and has limited access to F-16 fighter jets.
According to the officer, Russia is ready to confront Western fighters by deploying its missile and radar systems in such a way as to maximize the aircraft's coverage area and keep them away from the front and important facilities.
The officers also stressed the need for a large-scale mobilization of additional troops, but are concerned about the possible political consequences of these measures. Despite this, Ukraine has not yet begun a new large round of mobilization, as the authorities are concerned about the possible political consequences of these actions.
On Tuesday, President Zelensky signed some amendments to the old mobilization law, which provide for lowering the minimum age for conscription from 27 to 25 years.
The Ukrainian military command emphasized that Russia is actively preparing for a powerful strike, perhaps even by August or even earlier.
“We have not only a military crisis, but also a political one. While Ukraine is refusing large-scale mobilization, Russia is currently gathering resources and preparing to launch a major offensive around August, and possibly earlier,” one of the officers emphasized.
