Ukraine seeks answers over Russian plane crash

Ukrainian officials scrambled Thursday to reveal details of a deadly plane crash over the border with Russia, asking for citizens' patience as they investigate Moscow's claims that Ukraine shot down a Russian military plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on his country's intelligence services to determine what happened and conduct an international investigation into the disaster, and accused Russia of engaging in wartime propaganda regarding the episode.

The disaster and Russia’s claims that Ukraine shot down a plane carrying its own soldiers pose an uncomfortable challenge to the government in Kyiv, which is trying to prepare its citizens for a third year of war. Ukraine is on the defensive on the battlefield and considering a new mobilization that is likely to be unpopular at home, while struggling daily to secure critically needed Western support.

A plane crashed in the Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, killing all on board, the Russian Defense Ministry and the regional governor said Wednesday. The ministry said the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were to be released as part of a prisoner exchange. The Russian claims could not be independently verified.
The cause of the crash remains unknown, although Ukrainian officials do not deny that the plane was shot down. They say they cannot confirm that Ukrainian servicemen were on board the plane, who were on their way to a prisoner exchange.
But Ukrainian military intelligence on Wednesday hinted at the possibility of a tragic mistake, admitting that the exchange was planned and saying that Russia did not warn Ukrainian soldiers about transporting prisoners of war to the border, as it had done in previous exchanges.
On Thursday, the head of the Russian parliament’s defense committee, Andrey Kartapolov, denied the Ukrainian version of events, saying that Moscow had informed the Ukrainian military that the plane was carrying prisoners of war, albeit in advance. Ukraine’s military intelligence, he said, was “officially warned” 15 minutes before the plane approached the border area. There was no way to independently verify that claim.

The differing accounts highlight one of the defining features of the war: a persistent lack of clarity with facts obscured by disinformation and competing agendas. Russia has pushed its dominant message for propaganda purposes at home and abroad. Ukraine has been reluctant to publicize any military failures. Tragedies and turning points in the war have been clouded by uncertainty, sometimes for weeks or longer.

Officials in Kyiv said it was too early to draw conclusions about the crash and that relatives should wait for confirmation from authorities in Ukraine. “We have not seen any signs of such a large number of people on board the plane, regardless of whether they were Ukrainian citizens or not,” the country’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, told media on Thursday.

Ukraine's internal intelligence service said Thursday it had launched an investigation into the plane crash as a possible war crime, without providing any guidance on how it would do so.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Thursday, called by Russia, to discuss the downing. Ukraine’s deputy UN ambassador, Khrystyna Gayovyshyn, told the council that Russia bears responsibility for the crash. She said Ukraine safely transported the Russian servicemen to an agreed location on January 24, awaiting a swap that never took place.

“The Ukrainian side was not informed about the need to ensure airspace security in the Belgorod area during this period, as has been done repeatedly in the past,” said Ms. Gayovyshyn. “The number of vehicles, routes and means of transporting prisoners were not reported to Ukraine. This alone may constitute deliberate actions by Russia aimed at threatening the lives and safety of prisoners.”.

Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, called her claims “paranoid nonsense.” He noted that details of the plane’s route had been given to the Ukrainian side in advance, and that “it is pointless to deny it.” No independent group has visited the crash site. Ukraine has requested access for the Red Cross and the UN.
The Red Cross office in Kyiv issued a statement on Thursday saying it did not mediate the prisoner exchange and had not received lists of those to be exchanged.
"We understand the stress and anxiety that such news can bring to families who have been separated from their loved ones for months," the statement said. "We will continue to do everything we can to help clarify the fate of the prisoners of war.".
Under the Geneva Conventions — treaties that define the rules of warfare and the treatment of prisoners — Russia is required to notify the Red Cross of the movement of prisoners, Mr. Lubinets said. Russia, he added, bears “full responsibility for the life and health of prisoners of war.”.

The Ukrainian government, he said, asked the Red Cross whether it had been notified in advance about the prisoners' trip to the border area, which is a zone of active fighting.

Complicating any Ukrainian investigation is the fact that Russia has most of the key details about the episode, including who was involved. Ukrainians are deeply skeptical of any information coming from Russia, which they believe is intent on turning the disaster into a painful ordeal for the prisoners' families.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said again on Thursday that Ukraine had shot its own soldiers, calling it a “horrible act.” The incident, he said, cast doubt on the prospects for future prisoner exchanges.

Groups that monitor Russian propaganda say Moscow is pushing a message aimed at the West: Ukraine cannot be trusted with long-range weapons. Russian social media posts have accused Ukraine of killing its own people.

For example, one post on the Telegram social network quoted a Russian official who runs the occupied territory, Volodymyr Rogov, as saying that the Ukrainian military deliberately shot down a plane carrying prisoners to discourage the soldiers from surrendering. “The regime is in panic,” the message said.
On Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky said in his nightly video address: “It is obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their relatives, and the emotions of our society.”.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based organization, wrote in an analysis that Russian propagandists “seized on the Il-76 crash to sow domestic discontent in Ukraine and undermine the West’s willingness to continue providing military support to Ukraine.”.

Hanna Chabarai, a Russian propaganda analyst at the Institute of Mass Information, an independent organization in Ukraine, noted: “The microphone is in Russia’s hands.”.

"This is emotional terrorism because the relatives and friends of the prisoners of war are very scared," she added.

International organizations, courts and independent news investigations have repeatedly refuted Russia's claims of war, refuting Moscow's denials that it shot down a civilian airliner over eastern Ukraine in 2014 and blew up a major dam on the Dnieper River last year.
The July 2022 explosion at the Olenivka camp for Ukrainian prisoners of war killed at least 51 prisoners and prompted months of efforts by Ukraine and international organizations to find out what happened.
Russia claimed that Ukraine had hit the site with a US missile. But a United Nations investigation ultimately found that a US missile could not have hit the site, and accused Russia of holding prisoners of war near the front line.
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