Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the State Government, gave an interview to The Economist, in which he made a number of resonant statements:
1. Skibitsky "does not see the possibility for Ukraine to win the war only on the battlefield."
According to him, negotiations are inevitable, and the exit to the borders in 1991 "becomes an increasingly distant prospect" and would not put an end to the war.
Right now, both sides are fighting for the "most favorable position" before potential negotiations. But they can start no earlier than the second half of 2025. At that time, Russia will face serious "headwinds". In his opinion, the Russian military production potential has increased, but by the beginning of 2026 it will reach a plateau due to a lack of materials and engineers. Both sides may eventually run out of weapons. But if nothing else changes, it will end faster in Ukraine.
2. In the near future, Russia will continue to implement its plan to seize Donbas. The fall of Chasov Yaru is a "matter of time." "Not today and not tomorrow, of course, but everything depends on our reserves and supplies," said Skibitsky.
Russia is also preparing for an offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, but the timing of this attack depends on the stability of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas. Skibitskyi assumes that Russia's main attack will begin "at the end of May or at the beginning of June."
According to him, Russia has 514,000 military personnel in Ukraine, which exceeds the estimate of 470,000 given last month by NATO Commander-in-Chief Kavoli. At the same time, the northern group of Russia near the border with Kharkiv has 35,000 people, but it is planned to expand it to 50,000-70,000 military personnel.
Russia is also creating reserve divisions of 15,000 to 20,000 men each in central Russia.
According to him, this is "not enough" for an operation to capture a large city, but it may be enough for a smaller task. "Quick entry and exit operation: possible. But the operation to capture Kharkiv or even the city of Sumy is a different order. The Russians know this. And we know it," Skibitsky added.
3. In his opinion, the Russian army is no longer the "arrogant organization" it was in 2022. And now it acts as "a single body, with a clear plan and under a single command."
