The Institute for the Study of War's analysis predicts that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to overcome many material constraints in the coming weeks thanks to increased arms supplies from partners. The forecast also predicts an improvement in the situation due to an increase in personnel numbers through mobilization.
Ukraine will be able to overcome a number of material constraints and address personnel issues in the coming weeks. At the same time, Russia will use its advantages, but Ukraine's capabilities will grow.
After addressing the challenges facing the Armed Forces, Ukraine will be able to stabilize the front line “in the coming months.” At the same time, limited counteroffensive operations may begin in late 2024 or early 2025.
Russian troops will continue to suffer tactical failures while the Armed Forces of Ukraine exploit these failures and the Russian military command makes adaptive changes to correct mistakes.
Well-equipped Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent a rapid Russian advance during the expected Russian offensive efforts in the summer. However, Russian forces will use certain advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have previously prevented Russian forces from achieving even tactical successes during previous offensive operations in Ukraine. And it is unlikely that Russian forces will conduct an offensive operation this summer that is significantly larger and more intense than previous offensives.
