Ukraine faces significant electricity shortages ahead of winter, even with favorable weather conditions. More than half of the country's electricity generation capacity has been lost to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Restoring these losses in a few months is considered virtually impossible.
Ukraine has suffered five massive Russian strikes on its energy sector since early March. The latest, on May 8, caused particularly extensive damage, shutting down three power plants. DTEK CEO Maksym Tymchenko noted that the constant alternation of destruction and repair threatens to result in the loss of all energy resources.
“The cycle of destruction and rebuilding can be stopped, but only with proper defense,” he said. This year, Russian forces were able to inflict significant damage on Ukraine’s power grid, due to delays in international aid.
According to Yuriy Boyko, a member of the Ukrenergo supervisory board, the winter will be difficult, but it is possible to reduce energy losses. Ukraine has lost approximately eight gigawatts of electricity due to Russian strikes, which is about half of the required capacity.
"This deficit can be reduced, but not halved. This means that even with a warm winter there will be a noticeable deficit," Boyko added.
Timchenko estimated the cost of restoring the power grid equipment at $350 million, using some European equipment. He hopes that the efforts of Ukrainian energy workers and Western support will allow the country to avoid disaster next winter.
Energy experts, including Andriy Zakrevsky, note that a complete blackout is impossible thanks to existing nuclear generation, but there is a significant risk of emergency shutdowns in Ukraine by the end of the summer.
