Ukrainian and Western analysts warn that if US President Donald Trump permanently cuts off military aid to Kyiv, the war will become much more difficult. The loss of American intelligence and the Starlink satellite system, without which modern warfare is impossible, will be especially noticeable.
Despite the potential loss of US support, Ukrainian military and experts believe that the army will be able to hold the defense for at least half a year. However, this is possible only on condition that Europe can compensate for the loss of weapons. The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy, Oleksandr Merezhko, is sure that the Russian army is also exhausted and will not be able to advance quickly even in the absence of American weapons. The worst-case scenario is that the Russian Federation will be able to capture a little more territory.
Ukraine's biggest problem today is not a shortage of weapons, but a lack of mobilization resources. Western officials claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are seeking to recruit up to 30,000 new soldiers each month, but more and more Ukrainians are avoiding mobilization. People's Deputy Yulia Klymenko believes that lowering the draft age will only worsen the situation, as young men will leave abroad en masse.
Klymenko stresses that the government should mobilize older men more effectively and improve military training. “People are afraid that they will be sent to the front without training and without weapons. They don’t want to be cannon fodder,” she notes.
Despite the difficulties, Ukraine has a chance to maintain its defense through the latest technologies. Mustafa Nayem believes that drones and robotic systems can compensate for the lack of artillery and armored vehicles. He emphasizes that the priority should not be the supply of HIMARS, but financing the production of 10,000 drones per month.
Ukrainian industry has already made significant strides in this area. TAF Drones CEO Oleksandr Yakovenko predicts that 2.5-3 million drones will be produced in 2025. At the same time, he acknowledges that the Russians are quickly adapting to new technologies, and now there is a minimal technological gap between the warring parties.
Western military experts warn that even if Trump does not block support for Ukraine, Europe will not be able to quickly compensate for the shortage of weapons. Arms stocks in NATO countries are significantly depleted, and the pace of production remains insufficient.
European leaders also fear that active aid to Kyiv could spark a diplomatic conflict with Trump if he truly seeks to “deal” with Russia. Some diplomats are already suggesting that the US might even openly oppose expanded military aid to Ukraine.
Despite the fatigue and difficult circumstances, Ukraine has no intention of stopping the fight. “If we surrender, it will make the situation much worse,” emphasizes People’s Deputy Oleksandr Merezhko. Ukraine continues to look for new ways to support the army, including increasing its own weapons production and intensifying cooperation with European partners.
