Ukraine may be defeated by Russia in 2024, believes former commander of the United Kingdom's Joint Forces, Richard Barrons.
The defeat, according to him, will not consist in the complete military defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in the fact that "Ukraine may feel that it cannot win.".
“And when it comes to that point, why would people continue to fight and die just to defend something that is indefensible?” Barrons is quoted as saying by the BBC.
He added that Ukraine is not yet at that stage, but problems with ammunition, personnel, and air defense assets create a threat that Russia could launch a major offensive.
The general believes it will happen “at some point this summer” in an attempt to break through Ukrainian positions. “And if that happens, we risk that Russian forces will then enter areas of Ukraine where Ukrainian forces will not be able to stop them,” Barrons said.
The problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is that the Russians can choose the direction of their main strike, and Ukraine will be forced to defend the entire front line, “which they, of course, cannot do.” Whereas last summer, the Russians knew exactly where the Ukrainians would attack.
Experts interviewed by the BBC named the three most likely, in their opinion, directions of attack by the Russian Federation – Kharkiv, Donbas, and Zaporizhia.
Kharkiv, experts write, is “definitely vulnerable” due to its proximity to the Russian border.
“Will Ukraine be able to continue to function as a viable entity if Kharkiv falls? Yes, analysts say, but it will be a catastrophic blow to both morale and the economy,” the publication writes.
Regarding Donbas, no specific directions of attack are specified. However, it is mentioned that Ukraine “strangely enough” defended Bakhmut and Avdiivka, suffering heavy losses, which, according to experts, it cannot afford (unlike Russia).
As for Zaporizhia, the city is an attractive target for the Russian Federation, allowing it to cut off part of Ukrainian logistics across the Dnieper. But an offensive here is complicated by the fact that it can be recognized in advance.
“The so-called Surovykin Line, consisting of three echelons of defense, is surrounded by the largest and most densely packed minefield in the world. Russia could partially dismantle this, but its preparations will likely be discovered,” experts say.
Retired General Barrons suggests that Russia will not have enough forces to reach the Dnieper, but it will achieve some success in the summer offensive. “They will not have a large enough or good enough force to break through to the [Dnieper] river… but the war will turn in Russia’s favor,” the former commander said.
At the same time, Russia’s strategic goal this year may not even be territorial. “It could be an attempt to crush Ukraine’s fighting spirit and convince its Western backers that this war is a hopeless affair,” the publication writes.
