President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to actively pressure Western allies, calling for the lifting of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons for strikes on Russian territory. As CNN notes, the Ukrainian leader's rhetoric has caused mixed reactions among experts.
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute in London, described the position as risky, as Zelensky effectively accused the West of cowardice. However, if the pressure works, the political dividends for Ukraine could be significant, as the resolve of allies could reduce Moscow's aggressive rhetoric.
Experts are divided on the effectiveness of public debate on the topic. According to US intelligence, 90% of Russian aircraft launching strikes are located within 300 km of the border, outside the range of ATACMS missiles. Russia has recently moved some of its aircraft further east, limiting potential targets for strikes.
Saville agrees that many important targets could have been moved, but that doesn't diminish the usefulness of using missiles. For example, Storm Shadow missiles, designed to destroy concrete structures, could be effective against military headquarters and ammunition depots that remain within range.
ATACMS with cluster warheads can cause serious damage to Russian airfields, and analysts estimate that at least 15 such facilities are within range of these missiles. George Barros of ISW emphasizes that public discussions have already forced Russia to relocate aircraft, which could reduce the number of bombings and give the Ukrainian Armed Forces more time to respond to threats.
Barros notes that the possibility of striking Russian rear targets could force the Kremlin to more carefully assess the risks of moving troops into Ukraine. His research identified more than 200 potential targets for ATACMS, including military units, fuel depots, and even the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District.
Saville believes that strikes on Russian radar systems could significantly weaken their air defenses, opening up opportunities for Ukrainian drones. The range of missiles could be increased if they were launched from Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.
