Gasoline and diesel prices in Ukraine could rise significantly within the next month if the US launches a military operation against Iran. According to fuel market experts, in the event of a protracted conflict, the price increase at gas stations could reach up to 5 hryvnias per liter.
Experts note that the key factor will be the duration of the fighting and its impact on world oil prices. If the operation is short-term — up to two weeks — oil may temporarily rise to about $80 per barrel, but prices will stabilize later. In this case, the Ukrainian market may react by increasing the cost of fuel by 1–2 hryvnias per liter.
A different situation is possible if the conflict drags on. If the tension lasts longer, the price of oil could exceed $85–90 per barrel. Then Ukrainian consumers could face a more significant increase in the price of gasoline and diesel.
An additional risk is the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil is transported. Any disruption to supply or damage to oil production infrastructure could cause a sharp increase in world prices.
Even if a large-scale military operation does not take place, but tensions in the region remain, fuel in Ukraine may increase in price by approximately 1 hryvnia per liter within the next week due to fluctuations in oil prices.
In addition to external factors, internal factors also influence price dynamics. In mid- or late March, an additional increase of approximately 1 hryvnia is possible due to the devaluation of the hryvnia and increased logistics costs.
Thus, the final cost of fuel will depend on developments in the Middle East, the situation on the global oil market, and economic processes within the country.
