Analysts predict a slowdown in economic growth in Ukraine in the coming years. The main reasons for this are a labor shortage and a difficult situation in the energy sector, which affects production efficiency and the stability of energy supplies.
International rating agency Fitch Ratings, in its forecast for 2024, notes that the Ukrainian economy will still grow by 4%. This growth, according to analysts, is due to several factors: the restoration of trade activity in the Black Sea, high government spending, and an increase in household incomes, which are experiencing real wage growth.
“Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and the ability to adapt to war conditions, but in 2025 we forecast a decline in growth rates to 2.9% due to persistent labor and energy shortages,” Fitch analysts note.
They also add that, under conditions of a long-term and reliable ceasefire, Ukraine's economic prospects could significantly improve in 2025-2026. The restoration of stability and peace will open up additional opportunities for infrastructure development, attracting investment, and increasing domestic consumption.
The inflation forecast for 2025 is 9.3% on average. The high inflation rate may also be due to rapid wage growth, which, according to experts, creates additional price pressure due to the lack of qualified personnel.
