Ukraine risks losing an energy war with Russia this winter unless Western allies, including the United States and Britain, reconsider their stance on allowing long-range strikes. According to Politico , the Biden administration has not yet given Ukraine the ability to use long-range American missiles to strike Russian airfields.
At the same time, the UK may lift restrictions on the use of its Storm Shadow missiles, but this may not be enough to ensure effective defense of Ukraine. Former US ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker emphasizes that without access to American missiles, Ukraine will remain vulnerable to further attacks.
A turning point in the energy war
Ukrainian officials fear that the coming winter will be a turning point in the war for energy security. Russian airstrike tactics, adapted after last year’s setbacks, have now been enhanced by the delivery of Iranian Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles. These missiles will allow Russia to strike logistics centers, ammunition depots and communication hubs behind Ukrainian forces.
The danger is that these Iranian missiles could free up Russian resources for their own missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, especially Ukraine’s energy system. The Russians could target key power substations that supply electricity to the country’s nuclear power plants.
Threat to Ukraine's nuclear energy
Today, about 55% of Ukraine's electricity is generated at three operating nuclear power plants. As energy expert Mykhailo Honchar notes, attacks on the substations that power these plants could result in a dangerous shutdown of the reactors. This could lead to the risk of a nuclear incident, which would have catastrophic consequences not only for Ukraine's energy system, but also for its economy and combat capability.
Politico emphasizes .
The role of Western weapons
The Biden administration began reviewing restrictions on the use of long-range weapons when Russia stepped up airstrikes on critical energy facilities in August 2024. Substations that provide operational electricity for nuclear plants have become particularly important. However, without the ability to strike Russian airfields and facilities that support these attacks, Ukraine’s chances of successfully defending itself this winter remain questionable.
Ukraine needs not only Storm Shadow missiles, but also access to American ATACMS to counter a new wave of Russian attacks. The lack of such a capability jeopardizes not only the country's energy security, but also its ability to wage a sustained battle on the battlefield.
