Analysts at one of the world's largest banks, JPMorgan Chase, have said that a ceasefire in Ukraine could be possible as early as July 2025. This was reported by Glavkom, citing the bank's geopolitical review. The forecast is based on an analysis of the current pace of hostilities and diplomatic dynamics surrounding the war.
Experts estimate that even if Russian troops continue to advance at the current pace, the complete takeover of Ukraine could take over a hundred years. This forces the parties to seek a political solution, even if only a temporary one.
JPMorgan claims that the war has already entered its final phase — the so-called “endgame.” A likely scenario is a ceasefire without a full peace agreement, similar to the conflict in Georgia.
Analysts are considering four scenarios for the end of the war:
1. Scenario "South Korea" (15%)
Ukraine retains control over most of its territory, receives security guarantees from the West, but does not join NATO. Instead, it rebuilds itself with $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. This is the most optimistic option, but also one of the least likely.
2. Scenario "Israel" (20%)
Ukraine receives strong military and economic support from the West, while maintaining the ability to deter Russia. However, the threat of war is not going away. This option is possible without the deployment of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory.
3. Scenario "Georgia" (50%)
The most likely, according to JPMorgan. Ukraine is losing some of its support, Western aid is being cut, and European integration is slowing. The risk of political instability is growing, and Russia's influence is growing.
4. Scenario "Belarus" (15%)
Worst case scenario: If the US withdraws support and Europe fails to bridge the gap, Russia will impose surrender terms on Ukraine. This will mean Ukraine's defeat and the destruction of the world order.
