The autonomous trade preferences regime introduced by the European Union for Ukraine after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion will expire on June 6, 2025. The so-called “trade visa-free regime,” which allowed for the duty-free export of a significant portion of Ukrainian goods to the EU, is being phased out, and the parties are returning to the pre-war free trade agreement (FTAA). However, with modifications.
What happened?
The Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) regime, in effect since June 2022, was temporary and was extended several times. However, due to pressure from a number of member states, primarily Poland, where farmer protests intensified, the European Commission decided not to extend the preferences in 2025. Instead, a transitional regime was introduced.
Since June 6, restrictions under the old agreement have been in place, but under updated rules that are currently being negotiated. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the parties will agree on new, more liberal terms of trade, which will still not be as free as during the ATC.
Who will suffer the most?
The agricultural sector remains the most vulnerable. According to Eurostat, it provided more than 60% of all Ukrainian exports to the EU last year, worth about $25 billion. Half of these exports go to the European Union. In particular, duty-free supplies of corn, wheat, sugar, and chicken may now be limited by quotas, and supplies may stop in the middle of the month under new rules.
Negotiations are ongoing
The European Commission promises that the new trade regime will be better than the pre-war one. The parties are currently working on interim terms, and the Ukrainian government hopes to agree on an updated version of the DCFTA by the end of the summer.
Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna emphasizes: "We are not talking about a complete return to pre-war conditions. The EU market remains open. We are working on a long-term solution.".
Politics vs. Economics
In addition to economic challenges, the situation also has a pronounced political dimension. In Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, the issue of Ukrainian agricultural exports has become an element of domestic politics and election campaigns. In May, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk bluntly stated: aid to Ukraine — yes, but not at the expense of Polish farmers.
Meanwhile, experts note that Europe has also become dependent on Ukrainian agricultural raw materials — especially the processing industry, which is less public but needs stable supplies.
What's next?
After the end of the "trade visa-free regime", Ukraine de facto returns to the old DCFTA conditions, but has a chance to negotiate liberalization. At the same time, until final agreements are reached, exports will operate under complex and unpredictable rules, which may hit agricultural producers and the country's budget.
