Ukraine may pay more to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its new Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program for 2026–2029 than it will receive in the form of loans, according to a forecast by Oleksandr Parashchiy, head of the analytical department at the investment company Concorde Capital.
According to the expert, the amount of financing that Ukraine expects to receive under the new program almost coincides with the amount of future payments to the IMF in the same period. Because of this, the balance between funds received and payments may turn out to be negative.
Parashchiy notes that, according to preliminary calculations, over the next four years, Ukraine could pay the fund about $1.13 billion more than it will receive under the program. This situation, in his opinion, looks unusual, since IMF programs are usually designed to support financial stability of countries, and not create an additional burden on the budget.
The analyst paid special attention to the structure of the interest rate on the fund's loans. Currently, the base rate is about 2.68% per annum. The IMF's standard margin of 0.60% is added to it. In addition, for countries with a large amount of borrowing, an additional surcharge is applied, which can reach 2.75% per annum.
It is this surcharge, according to the expert, that significantly affects the final cost of lending to Ukraine. The mechanism was introduced by the fund itself in order to limit the excessive use of large and long-term financial resources.
Parashchiy emphasized that Ukraine is also paying this additional rate on its obligations to the fund. According to his estimates, the country could pay an additional $900 million just due to the surcharge for high indebtedness under the new program.
According to analysts, such a payment structure means that cooperation with the IMF in the coming years will remain important for the country's financial stability, but at the same time will require careful management of public debt and budget spending.
