Ukrzaliznytsia has been hit by a double blow from finance and politics. The idea of giving Ukrainians “3,000 kilometers of free travel” looks good on billboards, but in reality it exacerbates the deficit in the passenger segment. According to the results of 2024, losses from passenger transportation reached about UAH 18 billion, and in 2025 they are already forecast to exceed UAH 22 billion. These losses are traditionally covered by revenues from cargo, but the volume of cargo transportation is decreasing.
The situation is complicated by the tariff "wall": the government does not review the cost of tickets, and the proposal of UZ to raise tariffs by at least 37% was left without action. Against the background of cost inflation, rolling stock repairs, and a shortage of cars, this preserves the unprofitability of the passenger direction.
Additional pressure is the restoration of infrastructure after the Russian strikes and foreign currency debts from the Euro 2012. Already in 2026, the railway must pay about UAH 34 billion on external obligations. Without targeted state support, management modernization, and systematic anti-corruption work, the company risks not being able to withstand the current load.
Against this background, the July contract between UZ and PJSC "Kryukiv Carriage Building Plant" for UAH 398 million is causing discussion: the price of one car is up to UAH 98 million, which is twice as expensive as previous purchases. At the same time, the company paid 58% of the advance payment (over UAH 277 million), while the production of the cars is planned for 2026. In conditions of liquidity shortage and growing debt burden, such a contract structure looks at least risky.
The key dilemma for UZ is the balance between social function and financial sustainability. Without a review of the tariff policy, targeted subsidies for "social kilometers", and a more transparent approach to capital purchases, the railway will continue to subsidize passengers at the expense of a declining freight business - with all the consequences for the carrier's stability.
