The advance of Russian troops on the front in 2026 has slowed significantly, while Ukrainian forces are increasingly seizing the initiative in various directions, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War report.
According to their data, between October 2025 and the end of March 2026, Russian troops captured about 1,929 square kilometers of territory, advancing an average of 10.66 square kilometers per day. For comparison, a year earlier the pace was much higher — more than 14 square kilometers per day.
The drop in pace is especially noticeable in the first three months of 2026. According to analysts, Russian forces advanced an average of only 5.5 square kilometers per day, which is almost half the rate of the same period in 2025.
One of the key reasons for the slowdown is the active actions of Ukrainian forces. Counterattacks and medium-range strikes significantly complicate the logistics and offensive capabilities of the Russian army.
Analysts note that in the winter and spring of 2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieved their most tangible successes in a long time. In particular, Ukrainian units liberated more than 400 square kilometers of territory in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipil directions within the framework of two offensive operations.
These actions had a wider effect on the front. Russian troops had to simultaneously maintain defense and try to continue the offensive, which led to a dispersion of resources and a weakening of positions.
ISW emphasizes that the current situation does not indicate the inevitability of major Russian successes. In particular, rapid progress in the Kupyansk direction or in southern Ukraine seems unlikely.
An additional factor is the Russian army's personnel problems. The Russian army continues to suffer significant losses and increasingly relies on poorly trained infantry. There are also difficulties in consolidating new positions, despite the use of infiltration tactics.
As a result, analysts state that the situation on the front remains dynamic, and the initiative is increasingly shifting to Ukrainian forces.
