In the second quarter of 2025, Ukrainians significantly reduced their demand for cash foreign currency. According to the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine, the volume of net purchases of cash currency fell to $0.8 billion compared to $2.8 billion in the first quarter. In particular, the demand for cash dollars decreased to $0.1 billion from $1.9 billion.
This is the lowest level of monthly demand since October 2023 — an average of only $0.3 billion in April-June 2025. The NBU explains this trend by several factors.
First, Ukrainians began to expect devaluation less. Household exchange rate expectations stabilized due to the stability of the hryvnia and the increase in the profitability of hryvnia financial instruments — in particular, bonds and deposits.
Secondly, trust in the hryvnia plays a significant role: Ukrainians are increasingly willing to leave their savings in the national currency, especially in conditions of high interest rates on deposits and government bonds.
However, in the non-cash segment of the foreign exchange market, demand for foreign currency has increased. This may indicate an increase in business activity, purchases of imported goods, or transactions related to foreign economic activity.
Despite the current stabilization, forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate remain pessimistic. According to experts, if the war drags on, the exchange rate could reach 43.5 UAH/dollar by the end of 2025, and 46 UAH/dollar in 2026. This is due to general economic pressure and prolonged hostilities.
Thus, although Ukrainians are currently demonstrating reduced demand for cash, the situation remains unstable. And the dollar, as before, remains a barometer of confidence in the economy - both for the population and for business.
